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Sportsbook.ag Friday NBA Betting Preview

Written by:
Payton
Published on:
Nov/06/2015
Sportsbook.ag Friday NBA Betting Preview

The Heat pay a visit to the Pacers Friday night as both teams hope to rebound from last season’s disappointments.

MIAMI HEAT (3-2) at INDIANA PACERS (2-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -1, Total: 195

The Heat (3-2 SU and ATS) are playing on no rest on the heels of a 96-84 victory in Minnesota, while the Pacers (2-3 SU and ATS) come into this game rested and riding a two-game win streak after dropping the first three games of the season by an average of 12.3 PPG.

Indiana has held a slim advantage over its opponent historically, beating Miami 50-45 SU and 51-42-2 ATS since 1996. The Pacers were a solid bet against the Heat last season, beating them 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. In the last meeting between the teams, Miami made only 2-of-20 threes en route to a 112-89 loss.

Bettors putting their money behind the Heat will note that the team is 114-81 ATS in road games versus poor teams (outscored by 3+ PPG) since 1996, while betting against home underdogs like their opponents who are coming off of a close win (by 3 points or fewer) has paid off 267-184 ATS over the same time period.

The Pacers, meanwhile, are 28-16 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams (forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game) in the past two seasons, and their Friday opponent is a dismal 3-13 ATS versus teams who average 9+ steals per game over the past three years. Miami will be keeping a close eye on some key injuries Friday.

Veteran SG Dwyane Wade has been struggling with migraines this week, and is listed as probable, while PG Mario Chalmers (ankle) is questionable to play and SG Gerald Green is expected to miss Friday due to an undisclosed illness. Indiana has some banged up players for Friday’s game as well, with C Ian Mahinmi (back) and SG C.J. Miles (ankle) listed as questionable to play.

Miami’s offense has struggled to find its footing in its post-LeBron James era, averaging a middling 98.6 PPG, even though they’ve been shooting at solid rates: 46.7% FG and 34.3% threes. The team has been less effective on the road though, scoring only 94.0 PPG on 45.8% FG outside of South Florida.

SG Dwyane Wade, in his 13th season with the Heat, leads the team in scoring (22.2 PPG), adding 4.2 APG. PF Chris Bosh has had a slow start to the season after missing the back half of last season with a life-threatening blood clot in his lung, shooting 39% FG – down significantly from his career average of 50%.

Miami may feel the absence of SG Gerald Green in this game, though the swingman had fallen off hard from his 19-point performance in the season opener.

While the Heat may have a long way to go to recapture their offensive mojo, their defensive effort has been consistently solid. They’ve allowed opponents 93.4 PPG on 40.3% FG and a stingy 28.0% from long distance, and C Hassan Whiteside (10.6 RPG) and Bosh (9.8 RPG) are among the league leaders in pulling down rebounds.

Indiana’s offense has been a tick slower than last year’s team so far this season, generating just 94.4 PPG, while shooting 41.2% FG from the field (sixth-worst in league) and a respectable 34.5% from beyond the arc (13th in NBA). The squad’s accuracy struggled at home against Boston on Wednesday, as they went a paltry 35-for-91 (38.5%) in squeaking out a two-point victory.

SF Paul George is the Pacers' top scorer this season, good for 18.6 PPG and leading the team in rebounds (8.4 RPG) and assists (4.6 APG). However, he is hitting just 35.9% of his shots and only 29.0% from three-point territory. George came up big against Boston though, dropping a double-double of 26 points (8-of-18 FG, 5-of-6 FT) and 10 rebounds.

SG C.J. Miles led the team against Miami over three games last season, averaging 16.7 PPG, and could be in for another productive night on Friday.

 

Indiana had the league’s fourth-best defense last season, but has yet to perform that well this season, allowing 99.0 PPG on 43.9% FG shooting and 35.7% threes. The team has been outstanding in generating steals (10.8 SPG), with PG George Hill (2.4 SPG), Miles (2.0 SPG) and George (1.8 SPG) among the league leaders in this category.

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