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NCAAB: Late Round Trends

Written by:
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Published on:
Mar/12/2010
NCAAB

As we get deeper into all of the major conference tourney's, it's a good time for a reminder about some of the late round trends that have formed in many of the conferences.

Hopefully you've been following some of the information from earlier in the week as the winners have been flowing. Get in on the action for all the important games this weekend at Sportsbook.com.

Get late breaking info on the GAME MATCHUPS pages.

Big East Conference

  •       A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since '98.
  •       Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in '10 after Louisville's chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

  •       The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Conference-USA

  •       With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%). Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

  •       FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney's, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi's and title games. Note: last year's Championship game was a pick'em pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

  •       UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since '03 in the semi's and title games.

Big Ten Conference

  •       Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney's after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

Atlantic Coast Conference

  •       Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since '99. It's not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since '99.

Mid-American Conference

  •       The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Southeastern Conference

  •       In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference

  •       Eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total. Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you're combining those numbers, it's 13-2 (87%) OVER for the last five years.

Get the latest prices on these conference title games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.

NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 3/12-3/14

It's Selection Sunday weekend in college hoops but in the pro's the action is heating up as well.

In the Eastern Conference the race for the last four seeds in the playoffs figures to come down to the end, with the 5th through 9th place teams separated by just 3 ½ games at the outset of this weekend.

In the West, the eight teams that will likely make up the postseason bracket have separated themselves from the future lottery teams, but still there is a ton to be decided in terms of seedings.

While naturally the NBA takes a backseat to the March Madness at this time of year, there is still money to be made at Sportsbook.com, and utilizing Top StatFox Power Trends can help you do so.

Now, here is a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends for the weekend:

Friday

CLEVELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA

PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 90.1, OPPONENT 102.1 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO vs. MIAMI

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The average score was CHICAGO 100.6, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 2*)

NEW YORK vs. MEMPHIS

NEW YORK is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games vs good offensive teams scoring 99+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 106.1, OPPONENT 110.9 - (Rating = 2*)

UTAH vs. MILWAUKEE

UTAH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The average score was UTAH 105.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)

UTAH vs. MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103.3, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday

LA CLIPPERS vs. SAN ANTONIO

LA CLIPPERS are 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) vs. good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in 2nd half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 93.7, OPPONENT 109.6 - (Rating = 3*)

NEW JERSEY vs. HOUSTON

NEW JERSEY is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 93.3, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*)

NEW YORK vs. DALLAS

DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was DALLAS 102.4, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 2*)

TORONTO vs. GOLDEN STATE

TORONTO is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 99, OPPONENT 108.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday

INDIANA vs. MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 23-5 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 101.9, OPPONENT 95 - (Rating = 4*)

BOSTON vs. CLEVELAND

BOSTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 96.6, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 2*)

CHARLOTTE vs. ORLANDO

CHARLOTTE is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in road games vs. good teams (Win% 60%-70%) in 2nd half of season since '96. The average score was CHARLOTTE 91.7, OPPONENT 106.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NEW ORLEANS vs. PHOENIX

NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 98.1, OPPONENT 104.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NCAA: NIT, CIT, & CBI offer value

We all know the big draw at this time of year is the "Big Dance" but the serious bettor might take a greater liking to the action in the NIT, CIT, and CBI tournaments if he or she chooses to analyze them.

Sportsbook.com will of course be your home for all the action on these games. Follow the daily lines on the LIVE ODDS page.

The games in those tournaments are nothing more than glorified non-conference games, with the higher seeded teams playing at home in most cases. As such, the handicapper gets to apply many of the same strategies that they have been perfecting since the tip-off of the season some four months ago.

With the thought of building our bankrolls for the main event, let's take a look at the recent action in the undercard tournaments to see if we can uncover some winning information.

CollegeInsider.com Tournament

2010 marks the second annual CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) featuring 16 deserving teams who didn't get the opportunity to play in the NCAA or NIT Tournaments.

The CollegeInsider.com Tournament competes with the CBI Tournament and teams are seeded with games are played on campus sites, including the championship which is a single-elimination tournament format.

In the inaugural edition of the tournament last spring, no power conference schools were included, and the most well-known teams came from the Missouri Valley Conference.

In any case, here are some of the things that happened in the 2009 CIT tournament, from a betting perspective.

  •       Old Dominion won the tournament championship, beating Bradley on the road. The Monarchs were 3-1 ATS in their four tournament games.
  •       Home teams were 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in the CIT tournament in '09, with every single one of them playing as a favorite.
  •       OVER the total was 8-6-1 in the 15 CIT games last year.
  •       There were distinctive breaks in the relationship between the pointspreads and the home team success last year. In CIT games with lines of -9 or more, home teams were 2-0 SU & 0-2 ATS. In games with pointspreads of 3 or less, home teams were 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. In between, they were 6-1 SU & ATS.
  •       Despite being the biggest name conference in the CIT tournament last year, Missouri Valley teams Bradley, Drake, and Evansville combined to go just 1-5 ATS.
  •       Only one first round road team pulled an upset last year (Belmont at Evansville), with hosts going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS.

College Basketball Invitational Tournament

The third annual College Basketball Invitational follows a similar format to the CIT: 16 teams, seeded in four regions, with each game in the first three rounds played at home arenas in a single elimination format.

However, the two teams eventually reaching the championship play a best-of-three series with the higher seed hosting two games should a third be necessary.

Last year, Oregon State and UTEP played for the CBI championship. After Oregon State won the first game in Corvallis, the scene shifted to El Paso, where UTEP took the second game of the series before Oregon State emerged as CBI champs with an 81-73 road victory.

Tulsa won the '08 championship, beating Bradley, 2-1 in the finals.

Here are some betting trends that have formed in the first two years of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament:

  •       Home teams were 23-11 SU but just 15-19 ATS in the CBI tournaments of '08 & '09. Both marks represent declines from the success of the CIT hosts.
  •       The CBI has been a high scoring tournament to date, with OVER the total owning a mark of 20-11-3 in the first two years.
  •       First round CBI games have proven highly competitive with the home teams owning a 9-7 SU edge but visitors having covered the pointspread in 11 of 16 games.
  •       Fortunes turn in round two of the CBI, with home teams having won seven of eight games while going 5-3 ATS.
  •       Favorites of 6-points or more in the first two CBI tournaments have gone 9-3 SU but 3-9 ATS.
  •       Home favorites of less than 3-points are an imperfect 0-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tournament over the last two years, while home underdogs are 3-0 SU & ATS.
  •       Power conference teams, or the "Big 6" are 9-5 SU & ATS in the CBI tourney, negating any preconceived notion that they don't care about these second-rate tournaments. Pac 10 teams are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS, not counting the game in which Oregon State and Stanford went head-to-head last March.
  •       "D"-level conference schools (Ivy, Southern, MEAC, America East, etc) are 4-0 ATS.
  •       In 18 past CBI games with totals posted at 140 or higher, OVER the total is 12-3-3.

National Invitation Tournament

The National Invitation Tournament, better known as the NIT, has been around since 1938 and is the longest running postseason college basketball tournament.

The NIT is twice as big as the CIT & CBI in terms of teams, with 32, but only recently did it start seeding teams in four distinct regions on the bracket.

The first three rounds are all played at home team sites, before the semifinals and finals are played at historic Madison Square Garden in New York. The last two NIT Champions have come from the Big Ten Conference: Penn State and Ohio State.

Here's a look at the betting story in the NIT, dating back to the 2007 tournament, the first going back to the current format of 32 teams.

  •       Home teams have gone 13-3 SU in each of the last three years of first round NIT action. In the two most recent years, the ATS split was 8/8 between home & road teams. In 2007, the visitors held a 9-7 edge.
  •       The home court advantage is even greater in the second round of the NIT tournament, as over the last three years, hosts are 20-4 SU & 17-6-1 ATS.
  •       In the past three years, there hasn't even once been a home underdog in the NIT tournament. Interestingly though, home favorites of 3-points or less are just 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS. UNDER the total is also 7-2 in those games.
  •       Double-digit home favorites haven't been a good bet either in the NIT since '07, going 18-2 SU but 9-11 ATS.
  •       The best line range in which to back home favorites in the NIT is at -3.5 to -9.5 points, 35-19-1 ATS over the last three years, including 12-4 ATS a year ago.
  •       The "B" level conferences (Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Conference USA, WAC, Atlantic 10) have shown some distinct tendencies of late based upon the opponent they've faced. When on the road at "A"-conference teams, they are just 3-22 SU & 7-18 ATS over the L3 years of NIT action. When hosting "A" teams, they are 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. In matchups between two "B" teams, the visitor is a perfect 6-0 ATS. When hosting a lesser conference school, the "B" teams are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS.
  •       Big 12 teams are just 4-10 ATS in the L3 years of NIT play. Missouri Valley teams are 3-9 ATS. Big Ten teams are 10-4 ATS.
  •       The semifinals and finals of the NIT are played in a neutral environment at MSG. Over the last three years, favorites in these games are just 3-6 SU & ATS, with no line exceeding 5-points.

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