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Carrie Stroup here with your Louisville vs. Michigan State spread, which was coming in at Spartans -4.5. You can find all the latest NCAA Basketball Tournament betting odds here at Sportsbook.com, which was offering up to $250 in FREE CASH. The bonus code is CARRIE STROUP (restrictions do apply).
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Michigan State -5 & 125
Opening Line & Total: Spartans -4.5 &125
The Draymond Green show moves to Phoenix as the star senior’s top-seeded Michigan State team takes on four-seed Louisville in a Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday night.
Green has been unbelievable in two NCAA Tournament wins this year, tallying a triple-double (24 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a blowout of LIU Brooklyn and then carrying his team past Saint Louis on Sunday with 16 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Louisville won’t be a pushover though, as the Cardinals have won six straight (SU and ATS), limiting opponents to 56.3 PPG during their win streak. Both teams have excellent head coaches with plenty of NCAA Tournament success, but Tom Izzo has been tougher to beat recently in March. And this season, MSU is 22-11 ATS overall (67%), 10-5 ATS (67%) with at least three days in between games and 18-8 ATS (69%) after an SU victory. The Spartans are also 5-1 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court (not including their loss on a battleship) and rank second in the nation in FG Pct. defense (37.9%) and fifth in rebounding margin (+8.3 RPG).
Louisville has held its two NCAA Tournament opponents to 59.0 PPG on 37% FG and 21% threes (9-of-42), but it struggled to contain New Mexico big man Drew Gordon. The 6-foot-9 senior owned the lane on Saturday, scoring 21 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. The Cardinals know they’ll have to do a much better job inside against Green and the other plus-sized frontcourt players for Michigan State. Sophomore C Gorgui Dieng (9.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and freshman F Chane Behanan (9.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) will be tasked with manning the paint. Louisville is at its best when junior PG Peyton Siva (9.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) is on his game. After a brilliant four-game Big East Tournament (13.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) and a strong NCAA opener against Davidson (17 points, six assists), Siva had just six points (2-of-6 FG) and five assists in Saturday’s win over the Lobos. Luckily for the Cards, sophomore G Russ Smith busted out of shooting slump (14-of-64 FG, 22% in previous seven games) to score a team-high 17 points against UNM. Senior swingman Kyle Kuric (13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG) also added 10 points, but failed to record a single rebound or assist in 33 minutes of action. He needs to do more than just score for his team to win on Thursday night.
Michigan State does a great job working the ball around for high-percentage shots, ranking 26th in the nation in assists (15.4 APG) and 16th in FG Pct. (48.2%). The Spartans don’t make a whole lot of threes (5.4 per game, 236th in nation), but have three players that shoot at a high percentage from behind the arc in Austin Thornton (47%), Travis Trice (41%) and Brandon Wood (37%), so they are certainly capable of shooting over the 2-3 zone that Louisville sometimes employs. Sophomore G Keith Appling (11.3 PPG, 3.9 APG) is second on the team in scoring, but makes just 24.5% of his threes for the season. Appling has had a strong tournament so far with 14.5 PPG on 12-of-25 FG (48%) and 3.0 APG. He scored a game-high 19 points in Sunday’s win over Saint Louis as the Spartans outshot the Billikens 54% FG to 35% FG in the 65-61 victory.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
