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Louisville vs. Duke Betting Line

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Feb/08/2016
Louisville vs. Duke Betting Line

The Louisville vs. Duke betting line was listed at Duke -4 with a total of 146.5. 

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (19-4, 8-2 ACC) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (17-6, 6-4 ACC)

Duke -4, Total: 146.5                 

A pair of ACC foes seeking a third straight win will collide in Durham on Monday night when Louisville visits Duke.

The Cardinals (10-9 ATS overall) made news on Friday with their self-imposed, one-year postseason ban for NCAA recruiting violations, but that didn't stop the team from destroying Boston College 79-47 the next day. They began the week with a 71-65 home win over then-No. 2 North Carolina, but have struggled a bit away from home this season at 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS.

The Blue Devils (10-11 ATS overall) are also unbeaten this month since falling from the Top-25 ranks, as they prevailed at Georgia Tech 80-71 on Tuesday and then beat NC State 88-80 at home on Saturday, but failed to cover the 11.5-point spread, dropping them to 6-5 ATS at home this season where they are 11-2 SU.

These schools are meeting for just the second time in ACC play, with Duke winning 63-52 on the road last year on Jan. 17, 2015. The schools also split a pair of neutral-court meetings three seasons ago with Louisville rolling to an 85-63 blowout in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight to avenge a 76-71 loss four months earlier.

There are plenty of positive betting trends for both schools on Monday, as the Cardinals are 26-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less (or pick) under head coach Rick Pitino, and are also 95-63 ATS (60%) after two straight ATS wins since 1997.

The Blue Devils are 17-6 ATS versus good defenses (64 or less PPG allowed) in the past two seasons, and are 32-13 ATS (71%) at home where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.

Louisville leads the nation in scoring margin at +19.1 PPG, as its offense puts up 79.0 PPG (50th in D-I) on 48.3% FG (22nd in nation) and 36.6% threes (84th in D-I), while the elite defense allows only 59.8 PPG (4th in nation) on 37.6% FG (7th in D-I) and 30.1% threes (18th in nation). This team is relentless on the glass with its +9.9 RPG margin (9th in D-I) and 14.5 offensive RPG (8th in nation), and forces many more turnovers (14.9 TOPG, 48th in D-I) than it commits (12.1 TOPG, 94th in nation). The biggest weakness for the team is foul shooting (68.8% FT, 203rd in D-I), but that number has risen to 72% FT (65-90) over the past four games.

Louisville has three double-digit scorers that pace the offense in G Damion Lee (17.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.6 SPG), G Trey Lewis (12.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 APG) and C Chinanu Onuaku (10.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG).

The senior Lee has scored at least 10 points in every game except for two, the team's past two losses to Clemson and Virginia, where he was held to six points in each defeat on a combined 0-for-11 threes. Lee, who played his first three collegiate seasons at Drexel, is shooting a career-best 47% FG to go along with 38% threes and 88% FT. He lit up North Carolina for 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-7 threes) last Monday, but sat out Saturday's win with a bruised knee.

Lewis, who is also senior transfer, was able to pick up some of Lee's lost scoring with 16 points (9-of-9 FT) in 28 minutes on Saturday. Lewis is knocking down 39% threes and 85% FT this season after draining 42% threes at Cleveland State last season.

The 6-foot-10 Onuaku also had a great week with 20 points, 23 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in the pair of victories. The sophomore has now pulled down double-digit rebounds in nine of the past 11 contests, and grabbed six offensive rebounds in 14 minutes versus Duke last season.

Another key to this Cardinals' success is the play of G Quentin Snider (9.6 PPG, 3.7 APG) who ranks fourth in the ACC in Ast/TO ratio (2.7), but missed all four shots he took against Duke last season.

F Deng Adel (3.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG) logged 34 minutes on Saturday, which was 13 more than his previous high, and produced a well-rounded line of 13 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals, all of which were career highs for the freshman. He could have another big game on Monday going up against the Blue Devils underwhelming frontcourt.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging an eye-popping 84.8 PPG (5th in nation) on 47.8% FG (29th in D-I) and 39.1% threes (23rd in nation). This is a decent foul-shooting team (72.5% FT, 74th in D-I) that rarely turns the ball over (10.0 TOPG, 10th in nation), but has a pedestrian +2.7 RPG margin this season.

This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with 71.6 PPG allowed (172nd in D-I) on 43.6% FG (200th in nation) and 35.3% threes (224th in D-I).

Four different players average more than 11 points per game for Duke, led by  Grayson Allen (20.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.0 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.6 BPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 16 points in a dozen straight games, where he has averaged 21.7 PPG while getting to the line 74 times (85% FT, 63-of-74). Allen has been especially hot during his team's two-game win streak with 55 points on 15-of-28 FG (54%) and 11-of-17 threes (65%).

The 6-foot-9 Ingram has not yet hit that freshman wall, recording 16 straight games of 13+ points, where he's averaged a whopping 19.5 PPG. Ingram has also done a better job of attacking the glass with 9.0 RPG over his past five contests.

The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are junior G Matt Jones (11.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) and freshman F/G Luke Kennard (12.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG). While Jones prefers to try his luck from long range (40% threes), Kennard loves driving to the hole and getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 92% FT (71-of-77). Although Jones has been ice-cold during his past five games (6.8 PPG on 11-of-39 FG), Kennard is coming off a monstrous 26-point effort against NC State where he made 9-of-15 FG and 6-of-11 threes. This long-range accuracy came on the heels of a weak 3-of-19 clip from behind the arc in his previous four games.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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