FiveThirtyEight Final Four 2018 Predictions
Everyone will be looking for the most useful predictions to help them bet this year's Final Four. One of the better prediction model websites is one that was popular during the 2016 U.S. Presidential race, FiveThirtyEight.com.
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The best low seeded Final Four teams include....drum roll please.....Loyola-Chicago, 6th best according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
The best low-seeded Final Four teamsBest pre-tournament Elo rating for Final Four teams seeded seventh or lower, 1985-2018
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Yeah, the Ramblers are among the better Cinderella teams, but history has not been kind to Cinderellas. Teams seeded ninth or worse are 0-6 all-time in the national semifinal.
Then there is this interesting little tidbit about Michigan:
Michigan is an especially interesting opponent for the Ramblers, given that both teams are riding double-digit winning streaks (Loyola has won 14 straight, and Michigan has won 13) and that the chief knock on Michigan’s otherwise stellar tournament play has been a lack of difficult opponents. If they do beat Loyola, the Wolverines will become the first team in history to make it to the national title game without facing a single team seeded better than sixth. But that probably overstates the ease of Michigan’s path; not only is the average Elo of their opponents not notably low by Final Four standards,1 but it’s not even the lowest of 2018. (Villanova has faced a much easier path to the Final Four, in terms of its opponents’ average Elo ratings.)
It should also be noted that, despite all the chaos of this tournament, the other regional finals ended up with chalk prevailing, producing a pair of No. 1 seeds in Kansas and Villanova, FiveThirtyEight.com notes. It’ll be the 15th all-time battle of top-seeded teams in the national semifinals, and the first since Wisconsin-Kentucky in 2015.
Villanova, the odds-on favorite to win the 2018 NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, appears to be the one to beat, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
Aside from some mid-game jockeying with West Virginia in the Sweet 16, Nova’s victories have seldom been in doubt on the road to the Final Four.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
