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Daily Fantasy NBA Player Value Watch – March 16: Nerlens Noel Red Hot

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
Mar/15/2015
Daily Fantasy NBA Player Value Watch – March 16: Nerlens Noel Red Hot

Gambling911.com has your daily fantasy NBA player watch for the upcoming days.  This is an easy to follow analysis broken down by date then by individual player.  Keep in mind, players are regularly added to these Value Watches so you may wish to come back for updates.

Who to Consider Daily:

March 16 -  DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, Nerlens Noel

March 17 – Gerald Henderson, *James Harden

March 18 – Rudy Gay, Elfrid Payton, DeMar DeRozan

March 19 – *James Harden

March 20 – DeMarcus Cousins, Bradley Beal, Aaron Brooks, Gerald Henderson, Damian Lillard

March 21 – James Harden

March 22 - Gerald Henderson, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan

March 23 – Bradley Beal, Nikola Mirotic

Nerlens Noel (Philadelphia - C) $6.7K – Needing only 32 fantasy points, Noel has managed to surpass that number in his last 8 games, even against solid opponents the likes of Chicago, Toronto and Atlanta. A lot of the padding to his fantasy points come from steals and blocks.  Nonetheless, his contributions are very well-rounded.  The only real negative we see here is that Noel failed to come close to his current value when he last faced Boston.

Detroit gives up the 4th most points to opposing centers this season so Noel needs to be on your roster the 18th for sure.

Have him against the Knicks, simply because they are the Knicks.

Have him against the Lakers, simply because they are the Lakers.

And have him on your roster against the Kings, a team he accumulated over 40 fantasy points against the last time he faced them.   

DeMar DeRozan (Toronto - SG) $7.2K – DeRozan needs roughly 32 fantasy points and reached that number in his last game versus Miami.  Now he goes up against a Pacers team that has had troubles of late containing shooting guards.  He did flirt with the 40 mark last time going up against Indiana.

Minnesota is also having it difficulties against opposing shooting guards, giving up the 8th most fantasy points to that position.   DeRozan did make value the last time facing the T-Wolves.

The Knicks allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.  It’s interesting to note that DeRozan did not reach value the last time facing New York a few weeks back.  This despite playing 40:18 minutes.  For that reason, we do have our reservations about playing DeRozan.  He’s an option but not a top consideration.   

Damian Lillard (Portland - PG) $8.1K – Lillard needs roughly 40 fantasy points to make value.  He’s reached that number in half of his last six games and only against teams with losing records. 

The Wizards do not have a losing record but have not fared particularly well against opposing point guards of late and Lillard is among the best out there.  While not quite reaching value against the Wizards back in January, Washington’s woes are more recent.  Certainly consider Lillard for Monday’s game though we would recommend some degree of caution with the Trailblazers on the road here.

Following the aforementioned trend in regards to facing teams with losing records, not only do the Magic have a losing record, they are also giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards.  Lillard had some success against Orlando the last time he faced this team though he failed to make value.  We still see him as a solid option on March 20.

James Harden (Houston - SG) $10.5K – Harden had well over 55 fantasy points versus Orlando in his last game facing that team.  He will play the Magic on the 17th.  *The blowout potential is here so exercise some caution as minutes could be reduced.

Denver allows the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.  He will go up against the Nuggets on March 19.  He had little trouble making value vs. Denver the last time he played them.   *The blowout potential is here so exercise some caution as minutes could be reduced.

Harden flirted with 75 fantasy points the last time he met Phoenix.  Nuff said.

You will notice there are no back-to-back games for Houston over their next five meetings. Make sure Harden is not slated to sit out any of the games against under .500 opponents such as Orlando and Denver. 

DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento - C) $9.5K - DeMarcus Cousins is on fire and he did manage to make value last time he faced the Hornets but he probably shouldn’t be the first consideration on this day (March 20) unless value is limited elsewhere.

Rudy Gay (Sacramento - SF) $7.2K - Gay should offer great value against the Clippers on the 18th.  LA ranks 29th against small forwards this season.

Bradley Beal (Washington - SG) $5.9K – The Clippers have struggled against shooting guards.  Beal scores over 40 fantasy points the last time he faced them.

Nikola Mirotic - (Chicago - PF) $7.6K - Charlotte is looming large on the 23rd.  Mirotic just made value against the Hornets coming off the bench.  It helps that they have struggled against power forwards of late.  He easily made value as a starter against Philadelphia in his previous game.

Gerald Henderson (Charlotte - SG) $5.1K - Needing only 25 fantasy points to make value, Henderson just lit it up against the Bulls, accumulating 30 plus fantasy points.  The Clippers have struggled against shooting guards of late though Henderson struggled against LA the last time he faced them. 

A better option is using Henderson against Sacramento, a team that ranks dead last against shooting guards.  He flirted with 40 fantasy points the last time facing Sacramento. This one goes off March 20 so watch for price changes between now and then.

Minnesota gives up the 8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards.  He reached value last time facing the T-Wolves.  This one goes off March 22 so watch for price changes.

Elfrid Payton (Orlando - PG) $5.8K - Needing roughly 29 fantasy points, Payton topped 35 the other night versus Boston and came close to making value versus Milwaukee in the previous game.  Most telling of all perhaps is that Payton was able to hold his own against Indiana a few nights ago.

Dallas has struggled against point guards though Payton did not fare well versus the Mavs when he last faced them.  Use only as a last alternative in this matchup.

Nikola Vucevic (Orlando - C) $8.7K - Denver is coming up and they have permitted the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers. The last time he faced the Nuggets, Vucevic tallied up just over 35 fantasy points.  He only needs that amount to make value and is very likely to do so.

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

 

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