MLB: Mariners Run Line System Looks Like Sure Fire Winner
Although money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball betting scene, don't forget about run line wagering as there are often valuable and profitable angles. As a matter of fact, there is a juicy run line betting system for tonight's Mariners vs. Yankees game. Let's take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle and how it could impact the contest. Sportsbook.com currently has the Mariners as +1.5 runs (-150).
Here is the key betting system:
Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).
Usually one would be leery to back a team with a poor bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, StatFox has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.
Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners' left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39).
Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.
In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.
"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."
Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).
With the money line set at Yankees -151 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog.
