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MLB: Blue Jays Hot But So Is System They Are Facing

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
May/06/2010

The Toronto Blue Jays were thought to be a lock to be in the basement of the American League East, instead they are 16-13 (+5.6 units) and in third place, ahead of the Boston Red Sox at this juncture. Today against the Chicago White Sox, they'll be up against a powerful betting system. Sportsbook.com currently has the Jays as +168 underdogs.

The White Sox started the season with what many baseball experts thought was the best four starting pitchers in the junior circuit. Thus far only one of them has pitched up to capabilities and instead of being Central Division contender, the White Sox are 12-16 (-6) and a full seven games behind front-running Minnesota.

Toronto's confounding start is because of arms, not necessarily bats in 2010. The Blue Jays are tied with Tampa Bay for the most quality starts at 18 in the AL and collectively the entire staff has been mowing down opposing batters with league-leading 230 strikeouts.

Tonight's starter Dana Eveland (2-1, 4.77 ERA, 1.588 WHIP) is not a pitcher who blows batter's away (13 K's in 28.1 innings), however he doesn't make the big mistake and has only given up one home run every 14 innings roughly this year.

Toronto's team batting average in 12th at .238, however they are fifth in run scored thanks to leading the AL with 43 home runs, led by Vernon Wells at eight.

Every Chicago starter has an ERA over five except for John Danks (3-0, 1.85, 1.000), who has been the one pillar of strength on the South Side.

The left-hander has had to be sharp, with the Pale Hose ninth in runs score in the AL at 4.2 and last in hitting with pitiful .229 average.  The Sox are below the Mendoza Line with runners in scoring position (.199), which is last in the majors.

Sportsbook.com views the pitching matchup as quite a disparity, with Chicago a -178 money line favorite. This series opener also falls into quite a winning system:

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who have team batting average of .260 or less, against a good AL starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, with their hurler giving up one or fewer home runs every two starts.

 Chicago already comes into this game feeling good after crushing Kansas City 9-2 last night and is 21-6 at home after scoring nine runs or more. Since 1997, today's system is 86-19, 81.9 percent and has been particularly potent the last three years at a remarkable 21-2. Over the years this system also lends itself to run line potential, with the favorite winning by 2.2 runs per contest in the 105 games played.

It is true the Blue Jays have won four in a row, but they are going to lose eventually and tonight looks like it might be that time.

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