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This free baseball pick is courtesy of Pregame.com.
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Atlanta Braves in a National League day clash. The Brewers continue to struggle at home, while the Braves try to settle their early season road woes. Milwaukee is -155 today, with a total of 8.5 runs expected today. This day game begins at 1:10 EDT.
Milwaukee has lost both of their home games since coming back from an extended road trip. Surprisingly the Brewers are really struggling at home this year, going 4-10 overall. The Brewers offense has been incredibly streaky, as they either score double digits in runs or are held to 3 runs or less. Milwaukee is averaging nearly 6 runs per game against right handed pitchers this season. The Brewers are 5-8 this season in games played during the day. P Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for Milwaukee today. The Brewers always feel more confident with their ace on the mound, and Gallardo is the true definition of an ace. Gallardo is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA this season, including 50 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched. The Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record. The Over is 9-2 in their last 11 against a team with a losing record.
LF Ryan Braun is doubtful with an elbow injury today, while CF Carlos Gomez is listed as Probable with a shoulder issue.
Atlanta will be looking to end their road trip on a high note by sweeping the Brewers. Atlanta has been terrible away from home this season, going 7-14. 2 of those 7 wins have come in Milwaukee, which proves just how rare the Braves road success has been this year. Atlanta is 6-6 in day games this season. The Braves have done well against losing teams this season, going 7-3 overall. The Braves are 10-11 against right handed pitchers this year, averaging 4.2 runs per game while batting only .231. P Derek Lowe will take the mound for Atlanta today, and he's struggled quite a bit this season. Lowe is 4-3 on the season, yet his numbers show he's been quite hittable. Lowe has an ERA of 6.16 and a WHIP of 1.658 this year. Lowe has had success against the Brewers in his career though, as he's 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA lifetime against them. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 16-7 in Lowe's last 23 starts.
The Braves are 10-3 in their last 13 road games against a team with a losing record. The Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
3B Chipper Jones is listed as Probable today with a sore groin.
Pregame.com projects the final score to be 4-3 in favor of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Under 8.5 is the Total of the Day!
Johnny Detroit, Gambling911.com
