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In yesterday's feature baseball game, we spotted a run line system that we coined a "sure-fire" winner, and Cliff Lee and the Mariners delivered with a 7-4 win in New York. For tonight, there's another very strong run line system AND trend that figure to impact the game between the White Sox and Royals from Kansas City. The teams' aces will collide as Jake Peavy matches up with Zack Greinke, with the latter installed as a -115 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com, with a run line of -1.5, +170.
Chicago right-hander Jake Peavy is starting to show the stuff that earned him a Cy Young Award. Peavy will look to extend his 21-inning scoreless stretch Wednesday when the visiting White Sox try to snap Greinke's recent stretch of solid outings.
The 2007 NL Cy Young winner while with San Diego, Peavy got off to a poor start in his first full season with the White Sox, going 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in 12 starts.
Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA), though, thrived against NL opponents in his last three starts, winning each outing while posting a 0.78 ERA. He struck out a season high-tying nine and gave up three hits in Friday's 6-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander is now two innings of shy of matching his career-best scoreless stretch.
Peavy, 4-1 with a 3.77 lifetime ERA versus the Royals, will look to win his fifth straight start against Kansas City (33-45).
Greinke (3-8, 3.72) is 5-10 with a 4.46 ERA in 19 starts against Chicago. He'll make his first start versus Chicago this season after going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in five starts against them during his 2009 Cy Young season.
Greinke was far from last season's form in his first 13 starts - going 1-8 with a 4.05 ERA. The right-hander, however, is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three outings, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.
The fact that both pitchers have been at their best of late leads to a highly profitable run line system from FoxSheets, backing Greinke and the Royals:
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (KANSAS CITY) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (31-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 23 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +9.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-52, +2.2 units).
If that weren't enough, there is also a noteworthy trend to consider based upon Kansas City's recent bullpen success.
- KANSAS CITY is 10-0 against the run line (+12.3 Units) in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 4*)
Visit the GAME MATCHUP page on Sportsbook.com for more key betting info on this contest and every other MLB game.
