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2009 World Series Betting Preview

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Oct/28/2009

Carrie Stroup here for Gambling911.com with your 2009 World Series betting preview. 

Game 1 of the Fall Classic is scheduled for tonight and odds-makers at Sportsbook.com have installed New York as a -195 series favorite over Philadelphia, and have put out numerous other line, total, and prop options to choose from as well.

New York may be favored to win another title, but that doesn't mean anything to the defending World Series champion Phillies, who are attempting to be first repeat champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. Some teams are intimidated by the Yankees uniforms; don't expect it to be Philadelphia, who has proven to be a deserving champion.

Pitching counts in the postseason and so does power. New York was the top home run hitting team in the big leagues with 244 and Philadelphia was the best in the National League at 224. Both teams play in homer-friendly parks, which were the top two in home runs allowed. The last time the two top hitting home run teams collided was 1926.

For those that prefer top quality pitching, it hardly gets better than Game 1 of the series. C.C. Sabathia is 12-1 since August (Yankees 14-1 in his starts) and has sick 1.19 ERA in three postseason starts. Sabathia will face someone who dressed in the same locker room as him just 16 months ago in Cliff Lee. The other former Cleveland Indian is 12-4 since July 16, and has an even lower ERA in his three postseason starts at 0.74. Both teams better start swinging from the start, as each pitcher has 20 strikeouts and three walks in the playoffs. This will be just the sixth time in World Series history, two former Cy Young winners faceoff.

Nuts and Bolts- Philadelphia has been the best team in baseball on the road virtually all season with its 51-34 record. The Phils are 3-1 in the postseason in traveling uniforms. On June 22, the Phillies had a 10-22 record at Citizens Bank Park. Since that time, they are a torrid 39-15. Philadelphia is 31-16 against left-hand starters and 73-48 in games decided by two or more runs. New York quickly adapted to new surroundings in the Bronx and has 62-24 home record, winning by impressive 1.3 runs per game, the second best in MLB. The pitching hasn't mattered; the Yankees are 70-43 against RH pitchers and 40-18 versus lefties. The Yanks are 99-48 as favorites and even better than Philly in games decided by two or more runs with 86-43 record.

StatFox Take: For the second year in a row, Philadelphia is an underdog in the World Series. The Phillies beat New York two of three this season and are not going to fear the Yankees. New York has the better starting pitching which has carried them for the most part in the playoffs. Beyond Mariano Rivera, the bullpen has been unnerving and Joe Girardi has been widely criticized for over-managing.

Philadelphia will piece together starting pitchers and really needs Cole Hamels to return to last year's postseason form immediately. The Phillies bullpen has caused a few anxious moments in the playoffs, yet has escaped unscathed.

The Yankees scouts have done uncanny work in having New York players in just the right spots on the field. In the series win over the Angels, lost track after 10 line drives outs, with Yankees players always perfectly positioned. If the opposing team has made a base-running blunder, New York has been able to steal an out each time. There is no lineup that has 27 harder outs in baseball.

All the talk in baseball is always about pitching this time of year, but the opposite is also true, as batters go into slumps. In this series, look for the team that continues to hit, especially for extra-base power. The Yankees should win in six, but the value of a team being defending champions, an underdog role to create even greater focus and being able to win on the road is too much value to pass up. Philadelphia in a classic series.

Sportsbook.com Game 1 Odds: Philadelphia +159, Yankees -169

Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Philadelphia +165, New York -195

Wednesday October 28

Philadelphia (Lee) at New York (Sabathia) 7:57 EDT

 

Thursday October 29

Philadelphia (Martinez) at New York (Burnett) 7:57 EDT

 

Saturday October 31

New York (Pettitte) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:57 EDT

 

Sunday November 1

New York (TBD) at Philadelphia (TBD) 8:20 EDT

 

Monday November 2

New York at Philadelphia if necessary

 

Wednesday November 4

Philadelphia at New York if necessary

 

Thursday November 5

Philadelphia at New York if necessary

 

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