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Why Trump Still Has Value at +175

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Oct/15/2020

Though former Vice President and current Democratic candidate for US President Joe Biden is up in all national polls and up or within the margin of error in most swing states, there are signs that the sitting US President, Donald Trump, can still pull off a victory at +175 (for a payout potential of $17.50 on every $10 bet).

Increased Voter Registration....Among Republicans

A key demographic that favors Trump, non-college over the age of 30, has seen registrations in the battleground states increase on average by 10 percent.  - New York Times

Of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — permit voters to register by party. In all four states, voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP than four years ago. - NBC News

In Florida, Republicans added a net 195,652 registered voters between this March's presidential primary and the end of August, while Democrats added 98,362 and other voters increased 69,848. During the same period in 2016, Republicans added a net 182,983 registrants, Democrats 163,571 and others 71,982. In 2016, Trump prevailed in Florida by just 112,911 votes. - NBC News

Even in heavily blue Miami-Dade County, where Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 29 points in 2016, Republicans added a net 22,986 additional voter registrations between March and the end of August, compared to 11,142 for Democrats. - NBC News

In Pennsylvania, Republicans added a net 135,619 voters between this June's primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 57,985 and other voters increased 49,995. Between the April 2016 primary and the November 2016 general election, Republicans added 175,016 registrants, Democrats added 155,269 and others 118,989. That fall, Trump won the state by just 44,292 votes. - NBC News

Fake Polls?

To suggest Biden is 12-15 percentage points ahead - as some polls have him - could be misleading. The polls in 2016 under-estimated Trump's support, but the pre-election range then was roughly 1-7 points. Some Republican Party leaders say Trump supporters no longer respond to polls, which many believe are "fake", or are perhaps punking them by falsely claiming they'll vote for Biden. - RMZ

Biden's Latino Problem

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released this in late September found Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in the Sunshine State. The poll found Biden with 52 percent support among Latinos registered to vote in Florida compared to Trump’s 39 percent.

Hispanics comprise a significant portion of Florida’s population, and shoring up his support among the key voting bloc could help Trump win the Sunshine State, which is seen as crucial to his reelection chances. Still, Biden maintains a significant lead over Trump in national polling and has an edge in other swing states. - TheHill.com

- Chris Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher

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