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What is the Payout on Biden, Trump Winning Pennsylvania?

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Oct/29/2020

The payout on Republican candidate Donald Trump to win PA is $14.50 for every $10 betDemocratic candidate Joe Biden requires a $17.50 bet to win/profit $10.  The $17.50 bet is refunded along with the $10 win just as long as Biden is elected. 

The Value Pick

Biden is up 3 points in the Republican leaning Rasmussen poll conducted 10/18 - 10/19.  The RCP Average is +3.5 for Biden and that is still within the margin of error.  That makes Trump a value bet by default even though Biden is more likely to win.

Another factor here is the fiasco that could see PA votes still being counted long after Election Day.  As a result, PA bets are not likely to be graded right away.

Early voting numbers, especially in the Philadelphia area, do look good for Biden.

Yet another bright spot for Trump backers, he won the state by 0.7 points after trailing in our final polling average by 3.7 points there.

The margin appears to be trending down by two points over the past month in favor of Trump, though with Biden still up around 3 points.

One solid variable that gives the Dems an edge: In Pennsylvania, Democrats have cast 946,662 early votes and Republicans cast 262,838, for a 79 percent to 21 percent edge that is well above the 70 percent Dems need to hit in early voting to match Republican turnout on Election Day. Translation, advantage Democrats in Pennsylvania.

Just how important is winning Pennsylvania?

For Trump, it is critical.  He would have only a 2 percent chance of winning the US Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania.

Trump Pays Out $14.50 for Every $10 Bet Here

Polls

Poll Date Sample MoE
Biden (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 10/15 - 10/26 -- -- 49.5 46.0 Biden +3.5
InsiderAdvantage* 10/25 - 10/25 400 LV 4.9 46 48 Trump +2
Trafalgar Group (R)* 10/24 - 10/25 1076 LV 2.9 48 48 Tie
Reuters/Ipsos 10/20 - 10/26 653 LV 4.0 50 45 Biden +5
FOX News* 10/17 - 10/20 1045 LV 3.0 50 45 Biden +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/19 800 LV 3.5 50 47 Biden +3
CNN* 10/15 - 10/20 843 LV 4.0 53 43 Biden +10
CNBC/Change Research (D) 10/16 - 10/19 574 LV -- 49 47 Biden +2
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/19 1241 LV 2.8 51 43 Biden +8
USA Today/Suffolk* 10/15 - 10/19 500 LV 4.4 49 42 Biden +7
U. of Wisconsin/YouGov 10/13 - 10/21 669 LV 4.5 52 44 Biden +8
Morning Call 10/13 - 10/20 416 LV 5.5 51 44 Biden +7
Reuters/Ipsos 10/13 - 10/19 653 LV 4.0 49 45 Biden +4
The Hill/HarrisX 10/12 - 10/15 992 LV -- 51 46 Biden +5

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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