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Sunday night's NFL game between the Saints and Buccaneers is a critical one as Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South with a win. Despite being the reigning Super Bowl champs, Tampa was not the division winner last season. That honor went to New Orleans. In fact, the Buccaneers haven't won the division since 2007. They enter this game as a big -11.5 home favorite. Before you bet this game, let's check out some of the hottest trends.
- There is an overlay of 3.5 points, which may suggest New Orleans can easily cover, however these significant overlays are often a result of injuries or other components that often result in a complete blowout by the favorite. The books opened at -10.5, still a 2.5 overlay, prior to the wagering public strong backing of the Buccaneers.
- If we only look to past history, the Saints easily win here. They have either beaten Tampa Bay or covered this 11.5 spread in each of the last ten meetings. But that's way too easy and the square bettor might typically eat this one up. That's not necessarily the case here as nearly 90% of the betting public is jumping all over Tampa Bay.
- The Saints are 0-6 Against The Spread in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- The Saints have lost five of their last six, though winning last week against the Jets on the road.
- While the home game against the Bills went into overtime, the Bucs have destroyed their three previous opponents at home.
Because the books have moved to Bucs -11.5 already, having the likes of Bookmaker and BetOnline taking this one down to -11 when so much of the action is on Tampa tells us they believe New Orleans will cover here. That 11-point line will entice folks who would otherwise bet the Bucs at Bovada to do so at BetOnline.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
