These Week 1 NFL Games Saw the Line Jump Dramatically Right After Being Released

Sometimes, not always, a dramatic line movement immediately after release is an indication that sharps are all over the opening number.  Gambling911.com takes a look at the Week 1 games that may have been impacted early by the wiseguys.  Be mindful that these sharps are not always right.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (Opened Saints -3.5)

Over the course of one week spanning May 12 through 18, the Saints were bet up from -3.5 to -4.5 and a few days later the line moved up another half point to -5.  Most books had the line at -5.5 on the Tuesday before Game Day.  BetUS is the only book we can find that had moved this one to -6.  That could change.

Sagarin has the Falcons at the very bottom of their power ratings (32) coming in at 10.98. New Orleans (21) had a power rating of 19.40.  Taking this week's 2.50 home field advantage to Atlanta, we get a line of New Orleans -6.  As already stated, the line has been moving up towards 6 from 3.5 but most books were reluctant to hit the 6 as of Tuesday.  74% of the action was on New Orleans.

As a home underdog, Atlanta is 2-9 Straight Up since 2017, though this is not a big enough sampling.  As an underdog, the Falcons are 13-28 SU (31.7%) since that time.  As an away favorite since 2017, New Orleans is 20-5 Straight Up (80%).

For us, this is an early lean on New Orleans -5.5 even if we are siding heavily with the public.  Maybe even better is Saints on the moneyline.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (Opened Ravens -4.5)

A few books, BetUS and Caesars Sportsbook specifically, opened at -4.  The line moved a whole point within 24 hours, an indication that sharps were on a feeding frenzy with Baltimore.

The news of Zach Wilson possibly sitting out this one impacted the line very little.  

Sagarin had this one at Ravens -7.  Baltimore (9) had a rating of 23.49.  New York (28) had a power rating of 14.08.  

The Ravens-Jets betting action was extremely lopsided as of midweek.  Baltimore was seeing around 90% plus of the bets on the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (Opened Chargers -4)

This one came down a half point within the first day of opening.  The number has since come down to -3 and had been moving between -3 and -3.5.

Sagarin has a line of Chargers -6 with LA (6) having a power rating of 25.44 and Vegas (14) 22.16.

Action was balanced at the -4. 

The Raiders are 4-2 in this series over the last six.

We would probably lean towards the LA Chargers here early on, but that could change.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Opened Packers -2)

Bovada opened at -1.5 on May 15 and moved the line to -2.5 on June 13.

PointsBet opened at -1.5 and jumped to -2.5 on June 25.

Green Bay (5) had a power rating of 25.46.  The Vikings (18) were coming in at 20.03.  We arrive at a line of Green Bay -3.

Vikings were seeing better than 65% of the early action, hence the reason the number is coming down as we approach Sunday.

The Packers last three wins versus Minnesota were by 9 or more points.  The Packers have won four of the last six in this series.

As an underdog, the Vikings are 10-20 Straight Up (33.3%) since 2017. 

As a favorite, Green Bay is 44-13 SU (77.2%) since 2017.

This is an early lean for us on Green Bay.

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks (Opened Broncos -3.5)

Within a day, this one moved from -3.5 to -4 and a few days later -4.5.

Since that time the line has shot all the way up to -6.5. Nobody was hitting -7 just yet.

We get a line of Denver -9.  Sagarin had Denver (7) with a rating of 24.57 and Seattle (29) a rating of 13.13.

- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com