College Basketball Betting – Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles

Written by:
Phil Simon
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We have a top-20 showdown in the ACC on tap for Monday night when the No. 17 Florida State Seminoles host the No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers. The Noles returned to the court over the weekend after a two week COVID break to beat Wake Forest in overtime, extending their home winning streak in conference games to 23. The Cavs were a victim in that run and they seek to extend their own winning streak. UVA has won four straight and 11 of its last 12 games after taking down North Carolina on Saturday. The Noles opened as a 1-point favorite on the college basketball betting line.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous CASH welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles
Date and Time: Monday, February 15, 2021, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL
Opening College Basketball Odds: Florida State -1, O/U 130
Virginia at Florida State TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

It isn’t often the Cavaliers are an underdog. If the line holds they’ll be catching points for just the second time this season. They were a 7-point dog when facing No. 1 Gonzaga the day after Christmas and things didn’t go well. The Cavs were obliterated 98-75. Since then things have been much better. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 going 7-4-1 ATS. They won their fourth in a row beating UNC 60-48 behind another stellar defensive showing. Overall the Cavs are 15-3 SU and 10-7-1 ATS. Florida State waited two weeks to get the taste of a loss to Georgia Tech out of their mouths. That’s how long the program paused due to COVID. It wasn’t a thing of beauty, but it was a win. Playing as a 13-point favorite, the Noles needed extra time to beat Wake Forest 92-85. They’ve dropped two straight ATS and are 8-6 overall ATS.

Virginia Cavaliers

You can’t talk about the Cavs without mentioning their defense. It’s one of the premiere units in the country allowing an average of only 58.8 points while holding opponents to 32 percent shooting from three-point range. For a second straight game they held and opponent below 50 points stopping UNC 60-48 over the weekend. The Heels were frustrated shooting only 35 percent from the field while making just 2 of 16 three-pointers.

UVA has been even better during its four-game winning streak holding opponents to an average of 55 points. They contest every shot and play a deliberately slow paced game to allow the defense to set up. UNC had a tough time from behind the arc which isn’t unusual considering the Cavs have allowed the last four clubs to go 14 of 65 collectively from deep.

You still have to score more points than your opponent to win and the Cavs have been efficient in that area. They won’t overwhelm teams, but they have balance and a strong inside/outside presence. Sam Hauser bounced back from a sub-par performance against Georgia Tech to score 18 points while Jay Huff added 17 points against UNC. “Sam is always a lights-out shooter. I feel like I’ve been shooting it well recently and it’s hard to guard,” Huff said.

Florida State Seminoles

They may have had an unwanted break in the middle of their season but it didn’t stop the Seminoles from showing off offensively. In their first game back after a two-week shutdown, the Noles continued to overwhelm foes. We’ll see which style of play prevails in this matchup; UVA’s relentless defense or FSU’s fast-break offense. The Noles average 79 points for the entire season with that number going over 80 in ACC games.

FSU was able to crack the code against other top defensive teams in the conference. The Noles scored 80 points in a win over Clemson a few weeks ago and dropped 78 to beat Louisville the game before that. The stoppage didn’t seem to affect them too much, at least scoring the basketball. The Noles shot 46 percent overall and hit 12 of 25 triples against Wake. They got a big game from RaiQuan Gray, who had a double-double with 24 points and 12 rebounds.

There was some rust with Wake, a 13-point dog, taking the game to overtime. And the Noles needed a driving layup late in regulation just to get there. I expect they’ll be more dialed in, at least they better be or the Cavs will put that long home court winning streak in ACC games to rest.

Bet Virginia at Florida State at BookMaker.eu

Virginia is really good at what it does and I don’t see the Noles doing enough to break down the defense. And the Cavs are getting help from a lot of players on the roster, not just leading scorers Hauser and Huff. That just makes the task even tougher. UVA has no problem going slow and that frustrates opponents. Florida State is next in line.

College Basketball Score Prediction: Virginia 64, Florida State 58

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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