Value Positions on NFL Futures and Props 2019: AFC East

Written by:
Mary Montgomery
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NFL preseason futures and props bets are typically a great source of value.  You’re getting full benefit of preseason hype that can quickly be dispelled once the games start counting for real.

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No matter the team, their fans are entering the 2019 NFL season with high hopes.  Not all of these hopes will come to fruition and our plan is to financially benefit from the crushed aspirations and broken dreams of these supporters of underachieving NFL teams.  With a few teams that should exceed expectations thrown in for good measure.

So let’s take a look at the NFL futures odds and proposition lines over at  We’ll focus on a different NFL division every day until we’ve hit all six starting with the AFC East:



The New England Patriots have won the AFC East divisional title ten straight years and in 16 of the past 18.  They’re a -400 favorite to do so again.  At some point, however, they’ll falter.  Tom Brady is a freak of nature but he’s 42 years old and there’s always the risk of injury.  Brady could have another great year and if he does the Patriots have the inside track at winning the division.  If he doesn’t, they’re just not the same team with Brian Hoyer under center.

Should the Patriots not win the AFC East title for whatever reason someone else has to.  The New York Jets are second favorites more due to the high profile pickup of Le’Veon Bell than anything else.  Second year QB Sam Darnold is still a work in progress and there’s no guarantee that he’ll improve this year with erratic head coach Adam Gase at the helm.  Not sure how Gase sold himself as an ‘offensive genius’ given the performance of his Miami teams.  Gase left Miami in a mess and the Dolphins will have to take a step back this year before they can even think of rebuilding.

Buffalo will likely be the most improved team in the division this year and if anything happens to derail New England have the best mix of personnel, coaching and chemistry to win this division in their stead.  At +900, implied probability is a mere 10% and there’s a lot to like about the improving Bills with underrated head coach Sean McDermott.


As you can tell, we’re pretty bullish on the Bills.  We expect to see quarterback Josh Allen continue to improve under new quarterbacks’ coach Ken Dorsey and with a new target in free agent pickup WR Cole Beasley.  Bills had an excellent draft that should pay immediate dividends on the defensive side of the ball.  Defensive tackle Ed Oliver was the Bills top draft pick out of the University of Houston and he’s receiving raves for his athleticism and intensity.  Linebacker Matt Milano is back from injury and will pair with Tremaine Edmunds to form one of the more fearsome duos in the league.  The playoffs are a possibility but a .500 or better season doesn’t seem like a particularly tall order for a team that is coming together nicely in all phases of the game.


Back to the ‘team win totals’ prop bets at to take a shot at a couple of teams we expect to underachieve this year.  Adam Gase treated the Miami Dolphins like a cheap rental car and left the team in a complete mess.  Somehow he passed himself off as an ‘offensive guru’ and got a gig with the New York Jets.  Not sure how he managed to pull it off, but it gives us an opportunity to cash a couple of tickets in the process.  Dolphins upgraded in the coaching department bringing in former Pats assistant Brian Flores.  Other than signing cornerback Xavien Howard to a long term deal most of the Dolphins’ off-season activity has been cleaning up the mess that Gase left.  The team’s roster is such a ‘grease fire’ that you can’t really say that Miami is in rebuilding mode yet—they’ve got to spend a year to undo the damage before they can even think about rebuilding.

Gase was hired by the Jets in large part to develop second year QB Sam Darnold into an NFL elite at the position.  Like he did with Ryan Tannehill...uh….wait.  Gase’s system emphasizing short passes is a bad fit for Darnold’s skill set and he could very well regress this year.  Just like Gase’s offenses in Miami did during his tenure—in his three years at the helm the Dolphins finished 24th, 25th and 31st in total offense.  Jets did some good things in terms of personnel picking up defensive tackle monster Quinnen Williams out of Alabama with the #3 pick in the draft and improving the offense with the pickup of Le’Beon Bell and wide receiver Jamison Crowder.  Suffice to say that we’re not the least bit confident in Gase’s ability to put all of the pieces together to form a cohesive unit.  Throw in his prickly personality and if things go bad in New York they can really spiral downward quickly.

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