Tom Brady an Underdog for First Time in 68 games

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Published on:
Jan/14/2019

The Patriots opened as 3-point underdogs versus Kansas City for the AFC Championship, according to BetDSI.

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The spread marks unfamiliar territory for Tom Brady as the future Hall of Fame quarterback had been favored in 67 straight starts, including the playoffs. The streak had been alive for 174 weeks or 1,218 days.
 
The last time Brady wasn't the favorite came on September 20, 2015, at Buffalo. The Pats were 2-point dogs that day (Week 2) and won 40-32.
 
New England was an underdog in Week 1 of the 2016 season when Brady was suspended the first four games. The team was also not favored in Week 3 versus Houston when the line closed as a pick 'em. The Pats had been favored in 52 straight games, including the playoffs, until this week.
 
Since 2007, this is just the second time New England has been a playoff underdog. The Patriots had been favored in 23 of their last 24 postseason games overall. The lone exception was the AFC Championship at Denver in 2014 (Broncos -5).
 
The over/under for Sunday's AFC Championship is 57.5. This marks the second-highest game total in Brady's career. The only game that featured a higher total was the regular season meeting against Kansas City earlier this year (59.5 in Week 6).

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Game Notes (according to BetDSI odds database)
 
- Dating back to the 2014 season, the Patriots are 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as underdogs.
 
- The Patriots haven't won a road playoff game since 2007. They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread since then, and all three playoff losses came against Peyton Manning (2007 at Indianapolis, 2014 and 2016 at Denver).
 
- Since 2002, in the three seasons where New England lost at least five games, the team only won one playoff game.
 
- Overs are also 10-2 in New England's last 12 playoff games.
 
- The Chiefs have just two playoff wins since 1994, going 2-11 straight up and 2-11 against the spread.

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- Chiefs are 5-16 straight up and 4-17 against the spread in 21 playoff games played since 1970, including going 1-9 ATS at home.  
 
- Patrick Mahomes is trying to become the seventh second-year quarterback since 1984 to reach the Super Bowl. Dan Marino (loss), Kurt Warner (win), Tom Brady (win), Ben Roethlisberger (win), Colin Kaepernick (loss) and Russell Wilson (win) are the others.
 
- The Chiefs are one of nine teams that have scored at least 540 points during a season in NFL history. The previous eight did not win the Super Bowl.
 
- Home teams have won each of the last 10 conference championship games. The last teams to win a conference title game on the road were Baltimore and San Francisco in 2013.

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