Tom Brady Retirement, Free Agency Props
The New England Patriots have been eliminated from the NFL playoffs at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. To hear the mainstream sports media tell it this is a shocking turn of events. Sports bettors know otherwise and understand that the Patriots overachieved this year to finish 12-4 taking advantage of a tough defense and weak schedule. Their offense has struggled all year and has been downright pitiful in the second half of the season and that was likely their undoing. The Tennessee Titans have historically struggled in New England but the team experienced a significant transformation in the second half of this season. With veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill and power running back Derrick Henry the Titans were simply the better team due in large part to their superior offensive weapons. Tom Brady might be a better quarterback than Ryan Tannehill but Tannehill had more help.
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With the Patriots done for the year the mainstream sports media has shifted gears and is now fixated on Tom Brady’s future. Brady becomes a free agent in March and so far he along with the team have been evasive about his future in New England. The media is likely overreacting to this—it’s Negotiation 101 to not give the other side any information to work with this early in the process—but there are certainly some legitimate questions about what is next for Brady. BetOnline.ag has posted a series of proposition bets focused on Brady’s future as well as the Patriots’ prospects with (or without) their long time franchise quarterback. Here’s our take on the biggest questions on the board:
WILL TOM BRADY RETIRE BEFORE 2020 SEASON?
YES: +600
NO: -1000
Brady has made it pretty clear that he’s not interested in retirement. Some conspiracy theorists have made too much over projections that New England might go after University of Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm in the 2020 NFL draft. That’s not a sign that Brady is retiring, that the Patriots are ready to move on from ‘Tom Terrific’ or anything else. Every team has a need for capable backup quarterbacks and the Patriots are no different. They’ve already got the highly regarded Jarrett Stidham on their roster and Fromm has considerable upside both as a backup and to groom as a future starter. Lest we forget, two recent vintage Patriots’ backup quarterbacks are now starting in the NFL with Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco and Jacoby Brissett in Indianapolis.
You can make a case that Brady isn’t the quarterback he once was but even that is tough to conclude given the lack of offensive playmakers around him this year. He’ still sharp as a tack and in great shape. Unless he wants to take it easy and enjoy life, there’s no reason that he should consider retirement
BetOnline.ag also has this interesting proposition wager about another key component of the Patriots’ success:
WILL BILL BELICHICK RETIRE BEFORE 2020 SEASON?
YES: +700
NO: -1500
At some point, Bill Belichick will retire. There’s no reason to think that it will be anytime before the 2020 NFL season. New England’s issues this year had everything to do with not having the right personnel in the right positions. In no way does their early exit from the playoffs suggest that Belichick is no longer at the top of his game. He’s not going anywhere nor should he.
Now back to Brady. With his impending free agency there’s speculation that he’s looking to ‘cash in’ and collect a big payday from a team desperate for a quarterback. The odds suggest otherwise:
WILL TOM BRADY BE ON PATRIOTS ROSTER IN WEEK 1 OF 2020 ?
YES: -200
NO: +150
Despite speculation that Brady could replace Baker Mayfield as the starter in Cleveland, the most likely scenario is that he’ll stay right where he is. At this point, neither he nor the team is showing their cards. That’s the way negotiations work. What will most likely happen is that Brady will ‘test the market’ but eventually he and the Patriots will work out a deal that will keep him in New England for the rest of his career.
