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The Gambling Edge April 9: 4-0 NBA, 3-0 MLB

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Apr/08/2018

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The good and the bad, Gambling911.com will provide a daily update on previous game advisories and plays offered by this site.  Note:  We do count high priced MLB plays occasionally.

While Gambling911.com does provide game analysys of soccer matches, we will not be keeping record of these.

Our NBA Free Picks series is entitled "Bookie vs. Bettor".  Our MLB selections are entitled "Major League Baseball Top Exposures".  From time to time our ad partners provide free picks and previews.  These will not be reviewed as part of The Gambling Edge.

Let's review:

Current NBA Record: 4-0 (100%)

Current MLB Record: 3-0 (100%) 1-0 High Priced Picks

NBA Recap: Saturday's play on Oklahoma City seemed logical considering the revenge factor, a home game in OKC and what was anticipated to be a dropoff in performance by the Rockets who have already clinched home court advantage in the Playoffs.  The underlay for the -6 line was just 1.5.  We assumed Houston would be playing based on a rating a few times less than the number currently assigned.  The gambling public did come out on top here with 60% backing on the Thunder. 

As for Sunday, the overlay for Philadelphia stood out like a sore thumb as did the oddsmakers reluctance to move off the number 13.  This had us wondering if the game could actually fall close to that number and indeed it did.  Philadelphia won by 12 points and Dallas managed to cover the spread as a result.  Our key contention was that Dallas had not lost by more than 13 points in their last ten games overall.

Check out the analysis for the previous day results here

MLB Recap: We had Houston winning at a high price of -260 knowing that the oddsmakers were doing little to encourage betting on the Padres.  Everything here suggested a complete mismatch.  The books were pinched here with 90% of the action on the Astros though gamblers had to pay a hefty price to receive a nominal win (a $26 bet paid out $10). 

Arizona was a major exposure Saturday afternoon and we were all over St. Louis. 

Michael Wacha struggled in his season debut last Saturday but should rebound nicely today at home where he excelled last season.  Wacha is 1-1 lifetime against the Diamondbacks.  He beat Arizona last season with six scoreless innings.

More importantly, what had us scratching our heads:

One would have anticipated a line move more substantial than the -103 to -107 favoring Arizona that's occurred across the board, especially with 63% to 72% of the action coming their way.

Needless-to-say, Gambling911.com felt pretty good backing the Cards here.

As for Sunday, it was clear the books believed in Marlins RH Trevor Richards since 90% of the bets were on Philadelphia and the books just sat on -170 to -180.  Most dipped from -180 for a bit.  Richards posted a 2.53 ERA at High-A and Double-A last season, and won a rotation spot after allowing just one earned run in 12 innings this spring.

An Early Look at Public Favorites for Monday: We are seeing Miami and Seattle with lopsided action overnight in Major League Baseball with a nominal amount of wagers in.

The Thunder was seeing lopsided action heading to Miami.  There is an overlay of 2 points we are observing as the NBA Betting Power Ratings indicate this one should be a PICK'EM with a slight lean towards OKC -1 (.06).  The Thunder have won the last four in this series.  Let's observe how the books react come Monday to what should be high demand on Oklahoma City.

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com

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