TNF Free Pick - Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

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Tonight’s NFL matchup between the Dolphins and the Texans should be one of the better Thursday night games that we have seen in a while. This one has all the makings of a showdown and a close battle between two 4-3 teams that both need a victory. This particular game has a sudden and interesting twist as the Dolphins have announced that Brock Osweiler will be getting the start after Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out.

What you shouldn’t do…

Chalk this game up as a win for the Texans based on your opinion of Osweiler, don’t get caught up in this. What you should do, is look at the numbers. Brock Osweiler is playing great and over the last two games has racked up more than 600 yards. Osweiler is an “occasions” quarterback, he is the perfect backup, he proved that in Denver and for that matter, he proved it in Houston as well as Cleveland. The guy was not very good in Houston or Cleveland, especially Cleveland where he was flat-out miserable. Some quarterbacks were made for the backup role and Osweiler is the perfect example.

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans : Preview and Prediction

The history with the Texans; who cares? Osweiler certainly doesn’t and neither do the Dolphins. Often the fans get worked up about a story line that doesn’t really exist. Sure Osweiler signed for big money in Houston and it wasn’t meant to be. He moved on as did the Texans. Getting caught up in these off-the-field storylines never servs a bettor well.

What you should do…

Get caught up in the facts. Forget about the story and stick to the facts. The Texans have won four straight games and they will be damned if the Dolphins walk into their backyard and leave with a victory. Osweiler has a big problem on his hands tonight; J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. It’s a serious problem for this Dolphins offensive line that gave up four sacks to the Lions last week.

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Osweiler will be pressed all game long and this could be disaster. When he is hurried, he makes mistakes, as good as he has been the last two games with 629 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions—he hasn’t faced Watt and Clowney.

For all of the woes that Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has dealt with this season, he is playing exceptional with 1937 yards and 10 touchdowns. The seven interceptions is a problem and brings his rating to 89.9. Forget about the rating, what can he do against the Dolphins is what’s important. Against the Colts back in September, he was great, going 29/42 for 375 yards and 1 TD. Against the Cowboys on the 7th, he went 33/44 on 375 yards and no td’s.

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Watson has had to battle through his injuries the past few weeks and to come out in the wash with four straight wins, it’s remarkable. Who knows what the long term prognosis is for Watsons career but for this game, he will shine.

The Skinny:

Osweiler is mistake prone and so far, so good through two games. However, everything could change tonight against a defense that will hassle, badger and “go to work on the holmes with a pair of pliers and a blow torch”!

The Dolphins will likely have enough to hang around for the first half and possibly early into the 2nd but will run out of gas towards the end of the 3rd quarter. A blowout from either side would be a surprise. The Dolphins have enough defense to keep the Texans honest but again, not enough gas in the tank for 4 quarters.

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Now, this is cliché, we get it but it still must be said… the Dolphins are on the road with a backup quarterback that’s mistake prone, (although shows flashes of greatness from time to time) that quarterback must deal with Clowney and Watt in their backyard. The Texans get this win but buy the point. Do not lay the ½.

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Two great bets for this game:

Texans -7 buying the ½ or wait until just before kickoff hoping you can pick the ½ point up, (at the same time risking the line movement to -8)


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