Super Bowl LV Betting – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Well, the NFL made it through a tumultuous season and will crown a champion on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. It might be a home game for the Bucs, who are the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, but after winning three games on the road to get here, they probably don’t want that distinction. That’s okay since it’s a home a game in location only. Tampa has to be worried about the Chiefs, who look to become the first repeat winner since New England turned the trick in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Tom Brady led the way back then and he’s back to try and stop Patrick Mahomes from doing what he last did. The Chiefs are a field goal favorite to go back-to-back.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous CASH welcome bonus (max bonus $1600).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, February 7, 2021, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
NFL Odds: Chiefs -3, O/U 55.5
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

The line opened at Chiefs -3 and has held firm with the number of wagers and money bet spread evenly. We probably won’t see the spread come off the key number unless something drastic happens before kickoff. Tampa enters having won all three playoff games on the road taking the last two outright against Green Bay and New Orleans. The Bucs have won seven straight overall going 5-2 ATS in that stretch. At home this season they went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS, which included a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in Week 12. Tampa made a second half run in that game to cover the 3.5-point spread. The Chiefs won a bunch of games but they weren’t a good bet over the second half. Starting with a Week 9 win over Carolina, their last seven triumphs were by six points or less and they went 1-6 ATS. They broke loose against Buffalo in the AFC Championship, covering the 3-point line with a 38-24 decision. KC has won its last 12 games when closing as a favorite of 3-points or more, but they are just 4-7-1 ATS.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s like you can’t have a Super Bowl without Brady, which is the reason why the Bucs acquired him. Their lone Super Bowl appearance was a win over Oakland ending the 2002 season. Since then they made just two playoff stops and failed to get a win, until this season. They probably wouldn’t be here if not for Brady, but this is a good team on both sides of the football. They showed that by knocking off New Orleans in the divisional round and Green Bay in the NFC Championship.

Brady had a strong regular season throwing for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns. He hasn’t been as sharp this postseason completing only 55 percent of his throws. Those three second half interceptions against the Packers nearly proved deadly. Still, the Bucs managed to put up at least 30 points in each of their three postseason tilts. They finished the regular season as the third highest scoring team in the NFL.

Defensively the Bucs will have to slow Mahomes and KC’s offense, something few teams have been able to do. Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 12 encounter. The group has been opportunistic creating seven turnovers this postseason, which gave Brady a short field. And the GOAT doesn’t often miss with those chances.

Kansas City Chiefs

It would behoove the Chiefs to value the football. That’s something they’ve done well this season with 16 giveaways during the regular year, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. And for as much as he throws the ball Mahomes doesn’t cough it up. He had 588 pass attempts during the regular season with just six picks. He was the only QB with more than 550 attempts to have fewer than 10 interceptions.

That’s just one reason why the offense is so explosive. Mahomes has a cadre of playmakers at his disposal with Tyreek Hill likely getting the most attention from Tampa. Hill obliterated the Bucs secondary in the Week 12 meeting amassing 206 receiving yards in the first quarter alone and 269 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches for the game. There’s a chance Sammy Watkins returns only adding more depth and speed for the Bucs to contend with.

Tyrann Matthieu and Bashaud Breeland each had a pick of Brady in the first meeting and we’ve seen Brady toss the ball around to opponents more than usual this season. Statistically the Chiefs haven’t been as good on this side of the football, but the group rises to the occasion when it has to. Look for the defense to come up with a few big plays to get a victory.

Bet Buccaneers at Chiefs at BookMaker.eu

It’s hard to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but the Chiefs did their best to go back-to-back by bringing back nearly the entire starting lineup from last season. As long as they don’t turn the ball over the Chiefs should win, even with Brady on the other side.

NFL Score Prediction: Kansas City 30, Tampa Bay 23

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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