Spread on the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Week 2

Today we look at the spread on the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game, or what it should be.  Live odds can be found at BetOnline, which offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000).

What Should the Spread on the Bills vs. Dolphins Game be?

After Week 1, the Bills had a rating of 24.15 and the Dolphins 19.77.  Adjusting for home field advantage we get a line of Buffalo -2.  The line opened at -3 and moved up to -3.5 fairly quickly even though Miami won and Buffalo did not.

The NFL's second-highest scoring offense last year managed just one touchdown — Allen's 3-yard pass to Gabriel Davis — and settled for three field goals despite crossing midfield on eight of its 11 possessions.

"Obviously, it's not what we hope for, what we strive for, how we want to start the season," said Allen, who finished 30 of 51 for 270 yards, was sacked three times and lost a fumble.

"Whether it be first-game nerves or jitters, or feeling stuff with my feet, but I've got to play better," Allen added. "We're not going to panic. It's 16 games left."

The good news for Buffalo is that they have owned his series, winning and covering the current spread in the last five meetings.

What to Watch for in the Line Movement

BetOnline did not move the line off the Bills -6.5 at all the whole week.  Neither did Pinnacle for that matter.  Bovada had also been at -6.5 since August 28.  So here we have a situation where the line does not move at all off -6.5 and the dog wins outright.

New England, on the other hand, was a -2.5 favorite and closed at -3.5 at BetOnline.  They had the number at 3 just hours before gametime.  The sharp books were willing to cross over the 3 as recently as September 10, but not prior.  Recreational book Bovada also moved off New England -3 to -3.5 24 hours prior to game time.  The Patriots were seeing greater than 80% of the action, which might explain the need to get more money on Miami.

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com