Russia Invasion Impacting 2024 Elections Odds

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to transform every aspect of our existence, and politics is no exception.

It will likely transform the reputation of politicians. We’re already seeing an impact, with Joe Biden’s approval rating rising by a full 2% during the first week of March, which is his biggest rating uptick since becoming President.

Biden's odds for a second term have improved as well, as moved from +425 to +400 (or 4-1) to be reelected in 2024.

However, since presidential betting became available, these remain the highest odds an incumbent U.S. President has had at this stage of his first term.

Donald Trump remains the favorite for the 2024 Election, but his odds have worsened (+300 to +325) given that his respect for and association with Vladimir Putin is now an even bigger negative.

Additionally, Mike Pence is showing further signs that he’ll run in 2024 and is prepared to challenge Trump. The former VP's odds have been cut for both the Republican nomination and the presidency.

Finally, Ron DeSantis remains very popular among gamblers and he’s fast catching up with Trump. The Florida Governor is now +300 (or 3-1) for the party nomination and +500 for the presidency. As it stands, he’d likely start a strong favorite in a matchup with Biden.


Joe Biden Approval Rating on April 1


Under 40%: +1600

40-40.99: +525

41-41.99: +350

42-42.99: +225

43% or more: +120


Donald Trump

NOMINATION: +125 (from +115)

PRESIDENCY: +325 (from +300)


Joe Biden

NOMINATION: +140 (no change)

PRESIDENCY: +400 (from +425)


Ron DeSantis

NOMINATION: +300 (from +325)

PRESIDENCY: +500 (from +525)


Mike Pence

NOMINATION: +1000 (from +1200)

PRESIDENCY: +2000 (from +2200)


2024 Matchups

Trump vs Biden +425 (from +400)

Trump vs Clinton +2200 (from +2500)

DeSantis vs Biden +850 (from +900)

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