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Penn State vs. Auburn Game Spread Week 3: Lions Moneyline Play Early?

Written by:
Ean Lamb
Published on:
Sep/11/2022

Penn State opened as a -2.5 road favorite against Auburn with the line moving to -3 by Sunday evening.

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Since 2017, Penn State is 15-2 Straight Up in non-conference games.

As favorites they are 42-10 SU (80%), which is a nice sample size, since 2017.

Auburn versus ranked opponents is 11-20 SU (35.5%) over the past five seasons and 6-15 (28.6%) Straight Up as an underdog.

The Tigers are 1-4 Straight Up against Big Ten teams over the last decade.

Penn State is 1-6 Against The Spread in their last 7 vs. SEC.

The Lions are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

Do take Penn State on the moneyline at -150

The Nittany Lions do come into this game 2-0 and ranked.

ESPN's Heather Dinich offered:

The Nittany Lions will try to keep their running game moving at Auburn, which just held San Jose State to 54 yards on the ground. Freshman Nicholas Singleton gave Penn State an added dimension against Ohio, but this will be a tougher test. Penn State was held to 98 rushing yards in its season opener against Purdue. This game will help reveal if the Nittany Lions found somebody who can not only run the ball consistently, but also be explosive.

Penn State has so far managed to cover the spread in their first two games.

Against Ohio, Singleton carried the ball 10 times for 179 yards, added a 44-yard touchdown and was able to overcome the Bobcats stiffling defense for a 46-10 victory.  They were an -8.5 favorite versus Ohio.

Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford completed 19-of-27 passes for 213 yards, ran for a score and threw for another as Penn State scored on three of its first five possessions.

And forget any quarterback controversy here.  Penn State coach James Franklin said the plan was to allow each of his QBs to play a role, which they did. 

“I want to be out there with my guys as much as possible,” Clifford said. “But the one thing I will say, is if it means giving up some time to get guys prepared, I want to win more than anything. I have no ego in that. And I know how important it is to get those guys reps because if anything happens to me, I want to win games.”

Auburn at home held off San Jose State, 24-16 but it was not pretty.

T.J. Finley, Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby each rushed for touchdowns.

The contending quarterbacks for Auburn did not fare as well as what we witnessed with Penn State's three QBs looking to prove themselves.  Both Tigers quarterbacks were inconsistent.

Finley completed 13 of 20 passes for 167 yards. Robby Ashford's three atttempts resulted in no more than a 1-yard completion.  He also ran for a 30-yard gain and 61 yards.

Auburn's two-game start follows last season's five game freefall to close 2021. 

“Just to finish and play well enough in the second half to win. We didn’t do that at times on last year’s team,” Tigers head coach Bryan Harsin said. “So that was something that we emphasized from January and we emphasized all through fall camp.”

Result - Penn State outright win on the moneyline

Underlay/Overlay Alert

Your magic number is 10.26

The offshore books haven't come off the 3 all week as we head into Friday morning.  This one has a whopping 7-point underlay

These large gaps do not always work out well for the team that is supposed to lose by a smaller number, so do be careful here.  In other words, we have the potential for Penn State to blow out Auburn here.

- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com

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