PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship 2019

Written by:
Phil Simon
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Often referred to as the fifth Major, THE PLAYERS Championship might as well be the first since the payday tops any of the other four, including the upcoming PGA Championship. 

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This article is about THE PLAYERS Championship 2019 - For odds on the upcoming PGA Championship go here

The world’s greatest golfers will assemble at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to battle for the $2.25 million prize awarded to the winner. The top-20 players in the recent OWGR are set to peg it up with world No. 1 Dustin Johnson the betting favorite at with odds of +1315.

THE PLAYERS Championship

Dates: Thursday, March 14 - Sunday, March 17, 2019

Location: Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Opening PGA Tour Odds: Dustin Johnson +1315

THE PLAYERS Championship TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

Odds Analysis

The No. 1 ranked golfer in the world tops the odds board, but the field is tightly packed. With such a collection of talent you could put just about any of the top 10 listed players at the top and nobody would be the wiser. Johnson is the betting favorite even though his best finish at this event is a T12. However, his recent form is a plus with three top-10s in four starts, including a win at the WGC Mexico a few weeks back.

The tournament is taking place a few months earlier than in years past and that could cause some concern. Since 2007 THE PLAYERS was held in May with warmer days and longer nights affecting the course. Only one player in the field emerged victorious in each of the months, that was Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2013.

Defending champion Webb Simpson scalded the course to record-tying 63 in last year’s second round and cruised to a four-shot win despite signing a 73 on Sunday. No one has mastered the course the way Simpson did over the first three days when he was -19. Simpson is well down the odds board at +6050.

The date change for the tournament will not only affect the players’ preparation, it will cause changes to the course. The track will likely be a bit softer this time of year and we’ll see more drivers off the tee. That presents a challenge, though, with the many hazards that surround the playing field.

TPC Sawgrass has a way of eating golf balls with the abundance of sand and water, most notably on the iconic No. 17 water green. It also has a way of leveling the playing field making course management more important than anything else. The move to March also brings wind into play and the forecast is calling for gusts up to 16 MPH on all four days.

Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship at

Dustin Johnson +1103

Rory McIlroy +1256

Justin Thomas +1558

Brooks Koepka +1806

Justin Rose +1889

Rickie Fowler +2169

Francesco Molinari +2269

Tiger Woods +2676

Tommy Fleetwood +2679

Bryson DeChambeau +2802

Xander Schauffele +2802

Jon Rahm +3083

Sergio Garcia +3819

Patrick Cantlay +3918

Hideki Matsuyama +4399

Paul Casey +4668

Adam Scott +5050

Jason Day +5450

Tony Finau +5769

Webb Simpson +6025

Put the names of 20 of the best golfers on a wall, close your eyes, and throw a dart. Wherever it sticks probably wouldn’t be a bad pick in this loaded field. It’s all going to come down to ball-striking, staying clear of the many obstacles and hazards that guard the course, and a little bit of luck.

Woods withdrew from the API last week due to a sore neck, but he’s feeling better and will attract a ton of attention when he hits the course. He’s won here twice, doing so in March and in May, and he can match Jack Nicklaus for the most wins in the event’s history. But I can’t be too supportive of the Big Cat after so many injury concerns over his aging body. He wouldn’t play if he couldn’t do it at a high level, but given the field anything less than 100 percent isn’t going to cut it. That’s why I’m fading Tiger this week.

Recent form has guys like Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood looking good for a victory. It appears as though Fleetwood is peaking at the right time and he’s headed to a course he “loves.” A R3 76 prevented him from a higher finish at last week’s API, but scores of 69-66-68 point to a solid player.

McIlroy has been playing solid golf for a few months now, doing everything but win a title. A T6 last week at Bay Hill was his lowest finish in five 2019 Tour starts. Despite his recent form, critics say he doesn’t have the killer instinct. Well, it’s not like the other guys aren’t trying to win. And McIlroy is going to get his soon if he continues to play as well as he has. It took him some time to figure out the layout, but a run of four straight top-12s says he has.

THE PLAYERS Championship pick: Rory McIlroy

Top-10 Lock: Tommy Fleetwood

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