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NLDS Betting – Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Game 1

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Oct/07/2021

Proving that the MLB season is a marathon not a sprint, the Atlanta Braves overcame injuries and a sluggish first half to win their fourth straight NL East title. They hope to take the next step in their playoff progression starting with a matchup against NL Central titlist Milwaukee Brewers in one Division Series that starts on Friday. The Braves lost the NLDS following their first two division titles and dropped Game 7 of the NLCS last season. Behind one of the better pitching staffs in baseball, the Brewers cruised to their second division title in four years with the second-highest win total in franchise history.

Game 1 of this NLDS will air live on TBS at 4:30 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. Betting options for every game on the 2021 MLB playoff schedule are available at BookMaker.eu.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Game 1
Date and Time: Friday, October 8, 2021, 4:37 p.m. ET
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Probable Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Corbin Burnes
Opening MLB Odds: Atlanta +117, Milwaukee -140, O/U 7
Braves at Brewers TV Coverage: TBS

Odds Analysis

Pitching always plays a major role in the postseason when staffs are shortened and games are typically closer and lower scoring. It’s hard to say which team benefits the most in this series and it’s extremely difficult to predict in this game. The Braves send seasoned veteran Charlie Morton to the hill for Game 1. With the Astros in 2017, Morton won Game 7 in both the ALCS and World Series, and he won three of his four playoff starts last year with Tampa Bay.

The Braves had the lowest winning percentage of any of the last four division winning teams, but they played their best down the stretch. Part of that success has to do with their play on the road. They had the best road record of any NL East team with their 46 road victories the fourth-most in the NL. The Braves won two of three when the clubs met in Milwaukee during the regular season outscoring the Brewers 20-14 while cashing the OVER twice.

The Brewers grabbed the division lead in late June and never let it go. They led by as many as 14 games in mid-September and were cruising. It’s not easy to change gears all of a sudden so the Cardinals’ winning streak at the end of the season at least got the Brewers thinking about their path. They did have the division wrapped up but losing their final four games and five of their last six has to be a concern. If the pitching doesn’t hold up the Brewers don’t have a lot of sock to compete. They finished 27th with a team batting average of .233 averaging 4.6 run per game.

Probable Pitchers

We already touched a little on the postseason exploits of Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA). And he got greased up for this outing by pitching his best ball of the season down the stretch. For the fourth time in the last four full seasons Morton won at least 14 games. He tossed 9.2 scoreless innings over his last two starts yielding only four hits and two walks with 13 punchouts. He’s been consistently good over his last 16 starts going 7-3 with a 2.79 ERA while allowing only 62 hits in 93.2 innings.

In his only start against Milwaukee he allowed three hits and two runs with six strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings. He was saddled with the loss, though, when his mates scored just once. He’s thrown more than 100 pitches twice in his last 13 starts and is effective when pitching to contact.

Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA) is the big in Milwaukee’s big three leading the Majors in ERA, K’s per nine innings, fewest walks per nine and fewest home runs allowed per nine. With those kind of numbers is startling that his record is what it is. In 12 starts before his final outing the Brewers didn’t lose with Burnes going 7-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 77.1 innings during that run. In his final tuneup before the postseason Burnes was not himself allowing a homer and three earned runs over 2.0 innings in a loss to the Dodgers.

In his only start against the Braves Burnes allowed season-highs of nine hits and five runs and surrendered one of the seven homers allowed. However, he was bailed out by his mates scoring nine runs. And his career numbers against the Braves aren’t pretty. In four outings covering 6.2 innings, he’s allowed 16 hits, including four home runs, and 14 earned runs for a 18.90 ERA.

Bet Braves at Brewers at BookMaker.eu

The Braves have had a lot of success against Burnes and the Brewers’ bullpen struggled down the stretch. The pen is also without a key member after Devin Williams busted his hand. Toss the experience of Morton and the Braves have the advantage in Game 1, which is why I’m backing the visitors.

MLB Score Prediction: Braves 5, Brewers 2

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

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