NHL Hockey Betting: Top ‘Under’ Teams

Written by:
C Costigan
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Wrapping up our early season NHL ‘profit and loss statement’  We’ve hit the most profitable teams, biggest money losers and the top ‘Over’ teams.  That leaves us with a rundown up the teams that have played to the most ‘Under’ verdicts.  Records and stats are complete through the end of action on Monday, October 14.   We’ll update this series throughout hockey season.

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Pending the outcome of Tuesday’s game against the Winnipeg Jets, the Arizona Coyotes are the only remaining NHL team to not play an ‘Over’ game in the 2019-2020 season.  Arizona is dead last in goals scored per game  (1.75) but they’re #9 in shots taken per game (33.3).  At the risk of oversimplifying this dynamic in theory at some point some of these shots are going to start going in opposing nets.  Coyotes are the #4 scoring defense in the league allowing 1.75 goals per game but are middle of the pack at #15 in shots allowed.  Once the Coyotes start scoring they could go on a run of ‘Over’ games and particularly in the market is slow to catch up.


This is how the Ducks want to play.  They want to make it a miserable experience for opposing teams to face them.  So far at least, it’s mission accomplished.  The Ducks weren’t expected to do much this season but if they keep playing this type of hockey and continue to get excellent goaltending from John Gibson they can contend in the Pacific Division.  Anaheim is #5-T in opponent shots against per game (29.8) and #2-T in goals against per game at 1.67.  And like the aforementioned Arizona Coyotes they’re not scoring many either though they are scoring more than they’re giving up.  Ducks are #27-T in goals scored per game (2.17) and #21 in shots taken per game (29.7).  The power play is at the bottom of the NHL table at #28-T with the Ducks one of only four teams along with Arizona, New Jersey and Ottawa that have yet to record a power play goal.  The other component of special teams is looking good with Anaheim the #10-T penalty kill in the league at 84.2%.  Goaltender John Gibson is 3-2 on the season with a 1.82 goals against average and a .941 save percentage.


Where have we seen this before?  That’s right—last year’s Dallas Stars were very good defensively with the #2 team goals against per game (2.44) but the #28-T scoring offense at 2.55 goals scored per game.  At least they had a positive differential even if it was a razor thin 0.11.  So far this year, more of the same with the Stars scoring a paltry 1.86 goals per game ranking #30 in the league.  The problem for the Stars so far is that they haven’t been as tight on defense currently ranking #14 in team goals against average allowing 3.14 goals per game.  That makes for a -1.29 differential which isn’t the worst in the league but close (#26).  The bad news for the Stars is that they’re not putting the puck on net and rank #29 in shots on goal per game (27.4) but are #3 in opponent shots per game giving up just 27.3.  This puts the onus on the goaltenders.  Starter Ben Bishop hasn’t been that bad this year with a 1-3-1 record and a 2.78 goals against average.  Backup Anton Khudobin is 0-2 with a 3.59 goals against average.  Once the goaltending improves, the Stars should be fine and will continue to play plenty of games ‘Under’ the total.


San Jose is another team that’s not scoring goals.  Sharks are #27-T in goals scored per game (2.17) and #19 in shots on goal per game (30.3).  They simply haven’t played well enough in their own end to get away with their sputtering offensive attack.  They’re #23-T on the goals against per game table though they’ve done a decent job limiting opponent scoring chances ranking #10 on shots allowed per game (30.8).  Neither goaltender Martin Jones or Aaron Dell has been effective and their stats are nearly identical.  Jones is 1-3-0 with a 3.58 goals against average and a .887 save percentage.  Dell is 1-1-0 with a 3.48 goals against average and .884 save percentage. Sharks have won their last two and appear to have received a big psychological boost from the return of Patrick Marleau.  He’ll also help their moribund offense which could translate into some wins if the goaltenders do their part.

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