NFL Week 5 MNF Odds – Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

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Phil Simon
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The Week 5 NFL betting slate concludes with an AFC matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. The Ravens have overcome injuries and an opening day loss to win three straight taking a share of the North Division lead. After dropping their first three games the Colts entered the win column with a cover at Miami last week. Adding to Baltimore’s offensive arsenal is the ability of Lamar Jackson to succeed in the passing game. He’s thrown for over 600 yards in the previous two games with the Ravens going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Baltimore hit the board as a 6.5-point favorite with the line wagered up to Ravens -7.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Date and Time: Monday, October 11, 2021, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MT Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Opening NFL Odds: Baltimore -6.5, O/U 46.5
Colts at Ravens TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

There hasn’t been a lot of movement on the line since the half-point increase after initially hitting the board with Baltimore laying 6.5-points. Closing as a 1-point dog in Denver last week the Ravens played their best game defensively, stifling the Broncos in a 23-7 verdict. They were favored by 7.5-points a few weeks ago in Detroit and needed Justin Tucker’s record 66-yard field goal to avoid the upset. They are 2-2 ATS. Indy looks to keep rolling after getting its first win of the season. The Colts were catching 2.5-points winning outright 27-17. They’ve played as the underdog in every game going 2-2 ATS. Baltimore has won two straight and four of the last five meetings going 2-3 ATS. The teams cashed the UNDER in eight straight games with the total wagered down to 46.

Indianapolis Colts

There’s a reason why the Colts are 1-3. The offense has been stagnant lacking big plays while the defense hasn’t come close to playing at the level it did last season. But the Colts are right in the thick of the AFC South race just a game behind leader Tennessee and they’ve yielded the fewest points of any club in the division. They haven’t had much success against the Ravens lately dropping four of the last five games with three of those setbacks on the road.

The offense was better last week churning out 349 yards with a balanced attack. Carson Wentz is as close to 100 percent healthy as he’s been all season and the club expects more in the passing game. Wentz was efficient against the Fins completing 24 of 32 for 228 yards and two scores. And with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 103 yards the Colts amassed 139 yards on the ground. Taylor will need another big game to keep Baltimore’s defensive front honest.

The Colts’ defense took a step in the right direction last week holding the Dolphins to just 203 total yards and 3 of 11 on third down. Facing Lamar Jackson isn’t the same as stopping Jacoby Brissett, but the group has to be confident after its best all-around performance of the year.

Baltimore Ravens

We all know what Jackson can do running the football. Many consider him the greatest running quarterback of all time and he’s only been in the league a few years. Rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of the previous two seasons can get you recognized. But John Harbaugh and his staff have tried to make Jackson more of a passer, maybe things are finally getting through.

With the backfield limited due to injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, throwing the football has become a bigger part of the team’s playbook. Jackson had the second 300-yard game of his career in the win at Denver and he has two of his top three career passing yardage games in the past two weeks. But make no mistake this is a team that likes to run the football. So much so that Jackson ran for 5-yards on the final play last week to push the team over 100 yards for the 43rd straight time.

Throwing the ball has balanced the attack but the UNDER is 2-0 the last two weeks. A big reason for that is the improved play of the defense. After allowing a total of 68 points the first two weeks, the group yielded just 24 points the past two games. Overall the group isn’t where it wants to be ranked 18th in yards allowed and 11th in points against.

Bet Colts at Ravens at

Any chance the Colts have for an upset relies on their ability to contain Jackson. Not many teams have done that over the years and Indy could be compromised with Darius Leonard nursing an ankle injury. The Colts don’t have the weapons on offense to keep up even if the D has some success. Giving a touchdown on the line is a lot, but I like the Ravens at home and their defense looks much better.

NFL Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 17

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- Phil Simon,

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