NFL Week 4 TNF Odds – Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

That job opening at USC looks a lot better now for Urban Meyer. His first foray into the NFL has gotten off to a rough start with the Jacksonville Jaguars winless through the first three weeks of the season. Meyer knew the job wouldn’t be easy taking over a team that won just once in 2020. That did land them the No. 1 overall pick, which was used on “can’t-miss” prospect Trevor Lawrence. Unfortunately, Lawrence has missed a lot, tossing a league-high seven interceptions that’s prevented the offense from finding a groove. The Jags will attempt to end their 18-game losing streak with a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football to kick off the NFL betting week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Date and Time: Thursday, September 30, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Opening NFL Odds: Cincinnati -6.5, O/U 45
Jaguars at Bengals TV Coverage: NFL Network

Odds Analysis

Times they are a changing for the Bengals. I guess that’s what happens when you win some games. Cincy hit the board as a 6.5-point favorite for the Week 4 TNF affair, the first time they’ve been favored since Week 4 of last season when they spotted the Jags 1-point on the closing line. Cincy won that game 33-25 with the teams cashing the OVER. The line has since been wagered a point to Cincy -7.5 following the upset win at Pittsburgh. It’s rare to see the Bengals laying points and it’s rarer to see them as a touchdown favorite. That hasn’t happened since late in the 2017 season. Since winning last season’s opener the Jags have lost 18 games in a row going 6-12 ATS.

Jacksonville Jaguars

With each setback the Jags endure their odds of winning the following week get better. The ole law of averages says they can’t lose them all, though it looks like the Jags are trying. They gave one away last week when it looked like victory was in their grasp. Playing well for nearly three quarters, the Jags were up nine on the unbeaten Cardinals until the roof caved in. Arizona scored two touchdowns less than a minute apart late in the third quarter, the second coming on a Lawrence pick-six, and that was all she wrote.

The Jags are young and fragile and when things go bad they tend to escalate quickly. Case in point last week; after the pick-six they were still in the game with a quarter to play, but Lawrence couldn’t get the offense going losing a pair of fumbles and the Jags went three-and-out on their other fourth quarter possession. The end result was another loss, but this team has more talent and when the turnover issues get resolved they will win games.

Speaking of turnovers they are one of the most telling stats. Want to know why the Jags are 0-3 just look at their miscues. They Jags have coughed it up nine times – NINE – in three games and they have a minus-8 turnover ratio. Those are easily the worst numbers in the league. Lawrence is responsible for all the giveaways, but his confidence hasn’t wavered. “You can’t let it change the way you play...I can’t play timid, and not take shots or chances,” he said.

Cincinnati Bengals

If you’re looking for a feel-good story in the early part of the season jump on the Bengals band wagon. Already half way to matching their win total from a season ago, the team’s rebuild took a giant step forward last week with a win over division rival Pittsburgh. It was significant since it was a division foe and it was as convincing a win as we’ve seen in Zac Taylor’s tenure. That isn’t saying much since there’s only been eight, but hey you have to start somewhere. Even more telling is that it was Cincy’s first win over a division opponent outside the month of December since Taylor became coach ahead of the 2019 season.

We saw Joe Burrow bounce back from an awful performance in Chicago in Week 2 to lead the effort. The former No. 1 overall pick tossed three interceptions, including a pick-six, in the 20-17 loss. He was also sacked five times. Burrow threw for only 172 yards but he was efficient against the Steelers going 14 of 18 with three scores.

The Pittsburgh game was won by the defense, which is a strange thing to say. The Bengals controlled the line of scrimmage harassing Ben Roethlisberger all day. They collected four sacks and intercepted two passes while allowing just 4.4 yards per play. That side of the ball has been a bright spot with the unit ranked among the top-10 in total defense and fewest points allowed.

Bet Jaguars at Bengals at BookMaker.eu

This is a good spot for the Jags to sneak in and end their losing streak. Coming off a big road win in Pittsburgh and with the Packers up in Week 5 the Bengals are in a prime letdown spot. Lawrence needs to take care of the football to give his club a chance. He’s bound to be better and I like the visitors to finally put up a W.

NFL Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Bengals 21

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com