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NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Nov/26/2020

The 2020 NFL season has turned the corner and heads into the Holiday season. Division races are heating up and the run for the postseason becomes much more real. 

Week 12 kicks off with a Thanksgiving feast, though the Pittsburgh-Baltimore nightcap has been moved to Sunday. Here’s a look at this week’s best bets. 

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (+3.5) 

The Chiefs are still one of the favorites to win Super Bowl LV. QB Patrick Mahomes pulled off another fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Raiders last week. Kansas City is now 9-1. 

They head to Tampa this week for what should be one of the best games of the Thanksgiving weekend. The Bucs got beat last Monday night falling to another top tier defense - the Los Angeles Rams. 

The four Bucs’ losses are to teams with elite NFL defenses - two losses to New Orleans, one to Chicago, and the Rams.  

The Chiefs, as good as they are, only rank in the top ten in scoring and passing defense. Kansas City has given up 31 points in the past two consecutive weeks.  

One thing Tampa Bay can do is score, especially against mediocre or sub-par defenses. The other thing is that Tampa Bay has its own elite defense. The Bucs rank No. 1 against the run and No. 5 in total defense. They have the firepower to tame Mahomes and company. 

Plus, here’s the other thing. Kansas City is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Tampa Bay. The Bucs capitalize on a Chiefs letdown. 

Dolphins @ Jets (UNDER 45) 

The Dolphins head to New York after losing for the first time in six games last week. Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa ended up being benched but will still start for Miami on Sunday.  

The Jets, which have officially been eliminated from the postseason, have yet to win a game this season. They haven’t won since December 29 of last year. The Jets did beat Miami in early December last year, 22-21, at home. 

That still seems like a stretch as QB Joe Flacco will get the start again. The Jets running game is awful and New York scores fewer than 15 points a game.  

Miami beat the Jets earlier this season 24-0 holding New York to just 148 yards passing. That’s not a surprise as the Jets rank last in the NFL in passing success. The Miami defense, on the other hand, ranks in the top ten in scoring defense giving up slightly over 20 points per game. 

The value here is definitely on the Under. Each of the last five games in the series has gone Under 44. 

Did you see the numbers to come out of the NFL of couple weeks ago? Go check out NFL Week 10 by the numbers. 

Browns @ Jaguars (OVER 48.5) 

Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cleveland, which has struggled to score points the past few weeks, has actually made a living this season putting up points by the bucketfuls against inferior defenses. 

In its first seven games of the season, Cleveland and its opponents averaged over 60 points per game. If you take out the Browns last three games, Cleveland is averaging nearly 29 points per game.  

The Jags, minus last week’s blowout loss to Pittsburgh, had scored at least 20 points in each of its previous three games. QB Mike Glennon will make his first NFL start since 2017 for Jacksonville this week. 

With the running of James Robinson (762 yards), the Jags offense should be able to do enough against a Cleveland defense that ranks right in the middle of the NFL in most everything. 

Plus, the Browns offense finally gets a break from playing in cold, wet, and rainy conditions. This one is headed to the Over.

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