NFL Picks – 2018 Week 14 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Dec/06/2018

We were the windshield last week hitting on two of our three fade plays with the Jaguars and Ravens coming through for us. We should know better than to go against Tom Brady and the Patriots playing a home game in December.


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This article is courtesy of our friends at Bookmaker, providing an inside look at what is transpiring in the betting world this week.

They won again and easily covered against the Vikings. Oddsmakers have set the lines for the Week 14 slate of NFL games, and now it’s time for the betting public to be heard.

The Houston Texans haven’t lost a game since September and they look to extend the NFL’s longest win streak to 10 with a home match against AFC South rival Indianapolis. The Colts are getting 5-points on the current line and the public thinks that’s enough with over 60 percent of the action favoring the visitors. The Saints had the longest winning streak until the Cowboys ended that last week. Nearly 80 percent of the public is counting on New Orleans to get back in the win column despite laying 9-points on the road to the Bucs.

Let’s take a look at a few Week 14 games to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu.

Tennessee Titans ( -5 ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Just when we thought the Jags wouldn’t win another game, they came up with a defensive gem in a 6-0 win last week. It isn’t easy to shutout an opponent given the rule changes that allow receivers to do whatever they want while handcuffing defenders. But the Jags looked a lot like the team that came within 10 minutes of reaching the Super Bowl last season. Andrew Luck and the Colts were hot and the return of Sacksonville put an end to a losing streak that reached seven games, cost the team’s O-coordinator his job and put Blake Bortles on the bench.

The Titans are still in the playoff hunt after knocking off the Jets last week and are being backed by 72 percent of the public on the early wagers, but they still have issues offensively and it’s hard to imagine them scoring a lot of points against the rejuvenated Jags D. The teams failed to score a touchdown in the earlier meeting and combined for five field goals in Tennessee’s 9-6 win. They also managed just 25 points in Nashville last year, so don’t expect an offensive outburst. The lower the score the bigger that spread looks and that’s why I’m buying the Jags.

New England Patriots ( -7 ) at Miami Dolphins

We know better than to bet against the Patriots in the final month of the regular season when playing at home. But it’s a different story when they take to the road, and especially Miami. The struggles of the Pats in South Beach are hard to explain, but we’ll give it a try. Let’s see, it’s freezing in Foxboro and 80 degrees and sunny in Miami, that could be a reason. The Fins have won four of the last five at home over New England, including a 27-20 decision last year. Miami ran off three straight wins from 2013 to 2016.

The Dolphins still have faint playoff hopes and I’m sure they don’t want to see the Patriots celebrate another division title on their field, which should be motivation for another victory. The Fins got plenty of action when the line opened at +9, but now that it’s been wagered down to a touchdown, the public is supporting the Pats. Even with seven points, I’ll grab the home team against what a majority is saying.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5 ) at Seattle Seahawks

One of the bigger games of the week with major playoff implications in the NFC should be a good one on Monday night. These two clubs enter the weekend holding down the two wild card spots in the conference and they control their own destiny. That will change for the loser of this game and the Vikings are the favorite of the betting public with close to 65 percent backing the visitors plus the 3.5-points.

Seattle’s ground game is lethal and the Seahawks will pound the Vikings into submission, thus taking over as the game wears on. And I’ll take Russell Wilson over Kirk Cousins any day. Three weeks ago the Seahawks were floundering a game below .500, but they beat the Packers and pulled off crucial road win in Carolina before stomping the Niners last week. The Hawks look good and they will look better in their all green unis. They’ve never lost while wearing them.

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