NFL Picks 2018 Week 13 – Week 13 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Sometimes you’re the bug and sometimes you’re the windshield. That’s how things roll in the NFL betting world.

We had a solid run zigging while the others zagged over the previous few weeks, but that all came to a sudden stop last week when all three of our fade plays didn’t pay off. Oddsmakers have set the lines for the Week 13 slate of NFL games, and now it’s time for the betting public to be heard.

The Saints are on a major heater heading into their Thursday night matchup at Dallas. They’ve won 10 in a row straight up and they are a perfect 9-0 against the line over the last nine games. New Orleans is laying 7-points on the road against a strong Cowboys defense and that hasn’t fazed the public with over 80 percent of the wagers backing the visitors. The Rams and Chiefs are also getting plenty of support in their Week 13 matchups despite being double-digit road favorites.

Let’s take a look at a few Week 13 games to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu.

Indianapolis Colts ( -4 ) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is an intriguing game because of what’s happened in Jacksonville leading up to it. Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone needed to do something after the Jags lost their seventh straight last week, and the hammer fell on O-coordinator Nathaniel Hackett shortly after a loss to Buffalo. And soon after Hackett was cut loose, Blake Bortles was relieved of his starting job and replaced by Cody Kessler. It’s hard to imagine the Jags being much better, but they can’t be any worse. Teams have a way of responding following a shakeup, and there were several of those.

The Colts are on a nice run with five consecutive victories getting them in the playoff picture. Andrew Luck has had plenty to do with that by tossing scoring passes in bunches. He’s hurled three in each of the last four games and has at least that many in eight straight contests. He trails only Patrick Mahomes for the league lead. The teams met just a few weeks ago with the Colts pulling out a 29-26 victory and current form has led 85 percent of the public toward the Colts. But I have a feeling the Jags are going to respond and getting 4-points helps.

Atlanta Falcons ( -1 ) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Falcons are getting so much support early in the week that the line crossed over in their favor just a few days after hitting the board. Atlanta opened as a 2-point home dog and the public flocked to the points, moving the home team to -1 on the current line. It’s a bold move and we’ll see if it pays off, but the Falcons are struggling and they are nearly out of the postseason scenario after three straight losses where they failed to score 20 points.

It appears as though the Ravens will turn to Lamar Jackson again this week. The rookie led them to a pair of wins starting in place of injured Joe Flacco, giving the offense a dynamic it never had with Flacco behind center. Jackson rushed for nearly 200 yards total in the last two games, frustrating the Raiders and Bengals and pulling the Ravens back into the race. Apparently some aren’t convinced of Jackson’s abilities, but I am, and I’ll take the Ravens to put Atlanta out of its misery.

New England Patriots ( -6 ) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Playing the Pats in New England in December with Tom Brady at the helm is a formidable task for any team. And a majority of the public agrees with nearly 60 percent of the early action backing the Fightin’ Brady’s. The Pats look to be gearing up for another playoff run with another AFC East title all but secured. There have been more questions surrounding the club than in past years, but they are the Patriots and Brady is still competing at a high level, so we can’t count them out of anything.

Kirk Cousins was brought in to win games like this. He was identified as the missing piece for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations of their own. And while Captain Kirk is having a fine season, he has yet to deliver a signature win and the numbers are equivalent to what Case Keenum had last year. Cousins has gotten a reputation over his career for not being able to win big games. This one would definitely qualify and help the Vikes in their playoff push. I’m going to fade the Pats and go with the visitors and the points in this one.

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