NFL Picks – 2018 Week 12 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Nov/22/2018

Going against the public can sometimes be profitable and we hit it last week with a few fade plays. Oddsmakers have manipulated the lines for Week 12 of the NFL regular season and most games are getting even play on the lines from the public.


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There are a few games, however, that are getting plenty of one-way action. The Saints are playing like they’re possessed and if you had any doubts about them being the best team in the NFL, those were put to rest with a 48-7 takedown of the defending champion Eagles last week. Bettors are willing to give 9-points while backing the Patriots in their matchup with the Jets on Sunday. And 93 percent of the public likes the Packers and a field goal in their Sunday night tilt with the Vikings.

Let’s take a look at a few Week 12 matchups to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu.

Buffalo Bills ( +3 ) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Considered a Super Bowl favorite at the beginning of the year, the Jaguars have fallen to the depths of the NFL standings and their backers have lost all confidence in the team. The Jags are just trying to stay ahead of the Cards, Niners and Raiders for the worst record. Buffalo hasn’t been much better and it’s hard to believe the teams have the same record. Still the Jags are giving 3-points on the betting line and the public is gobbling up the points with the Bills.

Josh Allen is expected back in the lineup and he might have some added motivation to pick on Jalen Ramsey after the Jags DB called him “trash” in an offseason interview. Scoring has been an issue all season for the Bills and that 41-point output in the last outing was an outlier. Look for the Jags to show some pride and end their losing skid with a defensive effort that’s reminiscent of what they did last season.

Seattle Seahawks ( +3 ) at Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are coming off a season-saving win over Green Bay last week, and they had a mini-bye thanks to that Thursday game. That should help in their cross-country excursion to Carolina, and the standard field goal on the road is a boost that 80 percent of the public likes. Maybe the bettors are fading the Panthers after a tough loss to Detroit last week, but that’s the wrong move.

Cam Newton and his mates outplayed the Lions but just couldn’t finish. If they were beaten by an inferior team, than we should be concerned. They weren’t and we aren’t. If Cam had connected on his 2-point conversion pass, the narrative heading into Sunday would be much different. But it is what it is, and this game has postseason implications all over it. Seattle has struggled on the road and the Panthers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home, and it’s hard to overlook that.

Denver Broncos ( +3 ) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Getting 3-points at home against the Steelers was inviting for a majority of the early bettors backing Denver. The Broncos showed some fight last week with a last-second win over the Chargers to get them on the fringe of the playoff picture. However, the inconsistencies on both sides of the football remain an issue and the home field advantage that the Broncos have enjoyed for so many years isn’t there this season. Denver is 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at Mile High stadium.

And it’s hard to back off the Steelers, who are playing so well with six wins in a row. They’ve won big and they’ve won close, and they’ve won on the road. The Steelers are 4-0-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, and they are 15-1-1 SU and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 regular season road games. They haven’t been as potent offensively in recent games, but the defense has picked up the pace after a sloppy start to the season, allowing 21 points or less in each of the past six games.

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