NFL Picks – 2018 Week 11 Fade The Public Play

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The public isn’t always right and that was proven last week when two fade plays paid off with a winning ticket. At home against their heated division rival and coming off a bye had the Eagles backed by the betting public for their matchup with the Cowboys.

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It looked like the defending champs were still suffering from the Super Bowl hangover as they lost outright as 7.5-point chalk. There is plenty of one-way early action on the Week 11 slate of NFL games. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t even need his name on the ballot to become mayor of Kansas City. In a possible Super Bowl preview, the Chiefs are backed with 86 percent of the early public play for their Monday Night Football showdown with the Rams.

Let’s take a look at a few Week 11 matchups to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at

Atlanta Falcons ( -3 ) vs. Dallas Cowboys

It looked like everything came together for the Boys last week as they maintained a spot in the playoff hunt while gaining a game on NFC East leading Washington. Amari Cooper had his second nice outing since being acquired and opened up the offense for Ezekiel Elliott, who ran wild over a decent Eagles defense. Prior to the Sunday night affair, Zeke said it was a “must-win” game, and boy did he deliver with 151 rushing yards and two total touchdowns.

That was enough to get Americas Team back on the public’s side, right? Wrong. Despite having their three-game win streak snapped and scoring just 16 points in a loss to the Browns, the Falcons are America’s team in this matchup with nearly 75 percent of the action backing them. This game might as well be a tossup, but I’m siding with Dallas and the field goal against the judgment of the betting public.

Pittsburgh Steelers ( -6 ) at Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s easy to kick a team when it’s down, and the Jags are down and getting beat something fierce. A preseason favorite to win Super Bowl LIII, the Jags will be lucky to win another game the way they’re going. And they get the red-hot Steelers this week with the public’s confidence all but eroded. It’s hard to say where it went wrong for the Jags. They had a nice start winning three of four that included a thrashing of the Patriots in Week 2. Injuries hit and the offense forgot what the end zone looked like. And when you can’t score, it doesn’t matter how good the defense is.

Scoring hasn’t been a problem for the Steelers as they’ve done a lot of it during a five-game winning streak. They’re averaging five touchdowns and PATs during the run capped by a 52-point outburst against the Panthers last Thursday. There’s no way the Steelers can lose this one. That’s what most thought last year until the Jags won the regular season meeting. They can’t lose twice to the Jags, they said before the divisional playoff game. Jacksonville did it again. And they have the guy responsible for making it happen back in the lineup with Leonard Fournette returning from his injury. Nearly 80 percent are saying stay away from the Jags. Not me.

Kansas City Chiefs ( +3.5 ) at Los Angeles Rams

The teams are at the top of the odds list to win the Super Bowl and there’s a good chance we see them meet again in early February. The Chiefs have become the darlings of the NFL with their entertaining brand of football and they are getting a whopping 86 percent of the action on the early betting line. Give 3.5 points to a team that averages 35.3 per outing and it’s too good to pass up. At least that’s what the masses are thinking.

The Rams may have caught a break when the game was returned to the States after poor playing conditions in Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca forced the league out. The game will be played in the Coliseum and the Rams will be backed by their fans. Given how evenly matched these teams are in a number of statistical categories, and the fact they are both 9-1, the opening line raised some eyebrows. The Rams will have a little something extra to give having already lost to another top favorite. LA was dealt a 45-35 loss in New Orleans a few weeks ago. This marquee Monday night matchup will live up to its billing and the Rams will shine with a defense that hasn’t been great recently, but is better than what the Chiefs have.

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