NFL Futures Betting: 2020 Super Bowl Futures Value Plays Part II

We hit some futures betting value plays for the NFC and AFC Championship in the previous two articles.  We’re now looking for the same thing in 2020 Super Bowl futures. 

We’ve already done the ‘heavy lifting’ with our AFC/NFC Championship handicapping analysis.  Obviously, these teams go on to the Super Bowl where we’ve got a number of options including hedging off of a big price for a guaranteed profit.  For more information and analysis check out the NFC and AFC Championship futures articles along with Part 1 of this set.:

DALLAS COWBOYS +2500

The Dallas Cowboys have been known as ‘America’s Team’ for decades and as such have been a favorite of the betting public.  It’s unclear why they’ve fallen from favor despite having a pretty solid team.  One reason might be Jason Garrett who lacks the stately gravitas of Tom Landry and the swagger of Jimmie Johnson.  Garrett might not be a coaching icon but he’s decidedly competent and with this solid and well balanced Cowboys team that’s all he needs to be.  Dallas is in good shape on both sides of the ball.  Their defense is especially underrated.  There might not be a lot of ‘star power’ on Dallas’ D but all they do is take care of business.  They finished 2018 with the #6 ranked scoring defense, the #5 ranked run defense and the #7 ranked total defense.  The offense is also in good shape and Ezekiel Elliott and his 131 yards per game is back in the fold. They only have one legitimate challenger in the NFC East this year in the Philadelphia Eagles.  The team looked very good in Week 1 pulling away from the New York Giants after they had spotted them a 7-0 lead.  Dak Prescott had four TD passes and Elliott had his first rushing TD of the season.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3300

Another undervalued team once beloved by the general public.  Pete Carroll’s success in college football is well known but he doesn’t get the respect he deserves as a NFL head coach.  All he’s done since taking over the Seahawks job is win.  His NFL resume might not be as impressive as his college run at USC but it’s getting there.  Since taking the Seattle job Carroll has won a Super Bowl, made the playoffs 7 times in 9 seasons and amassed a .620 regular season winning percentage.  There’s a decent chance that the Los Angeles Rams could regress this season and if they do the Seahawks become the ‘team to beat’ in the division.  The Seahawks are a tough team to ‘pull the trigger’ on due to their ‘winning ugly’ tendency but this is a good team with an elite quarterback, top flight head coach and nasty home field advantage.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +4000

The Saints aren’t just going to waltz to a NFC South divisional title like they did last year.  There’s every reason to think that they could ‘regress to the mean’ this season.  There’s also factors like injuries, off field issues and just bad luck that can happen to any team.  Even the Saints.  If the Saints falter then Carolina becomes the team to beat in the NFC South.  Carolina improved both their offensive and defensive lines in the offseason.  Cam Newton looks to be back at 100% and although he didn’t do any real downfield passing in Game 1 that’s not really the Panthers’ primary forte.  Even with an ailing Newton the Panthers had the #4 rushing offense in the league last year.  Christian McCaffrey is an absolute monster—in Game 1 against the Rams he went for 128 yards rushing, 81 yards receiving and two touchdowns.  The high price on the Panthers is predicated on another dominant years from the Saints and that simply isn’t a ‘lock’.