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The concept of parity works both ways in the NFL. In our previous article, we discussed how it keeps NFL teams from putting up impressive pointspread records compared to college football teams. We looked at the teams that perform better against the spread than average and now we’re headed to the other end of the spectrum. We’ve tracked all 32 NFL teams’ performance against the pointspreads posted at BetOnline.ag this season. In this article, we’ll look at the ones that have performed the worst against the NFL pointspread. Note that these records and stats are prior to Sunday’s action:
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WORST NFL POINTSPREAD PERFORMERS AS OF WEEK 15 OF THE 2019 SEASON
CHICAGO BEARS (4-9 AGAINST THE SPREAD): The Bears are actually tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the worst pointspread record in the NFL at 4-9 ATS. 2019 has been a disappointing season for the Bears all around and that includes their performance against the spread. Even during their recent run of (relative) success they’ve been a bad ATS investment. Heading into Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers, the Bears had won three straight SU and 4 of their last 5. They only covered two of the games during this stretch and haven’t covered in back to back games since the third and fourth games of the season. The Bears haven’t been profitable in any situation. They’re 3-4 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS on the read. They’re 1-2 ATS as an underdog and a woeful 2-7 ATS as a favorite. As a road favorite, they’ve covered only 1 of 3 spots this year. The Bears are already a longshot to make the playoffs and they face a pair of tough games to end the season hosting the Kansas City Chiefs before they conclude the 2019 season at Minnesota.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-9 AGAINST THE SPREAD): The Philadelphia Eagles might be as big of a disappointment as the Bears. Just a couple of years removed from a Super Bowl Championship, Philadelphia has bumbled their way to a 6-7 record (pending their Week 15 game at Washington) along with a 4-9 ATS record. The Eagles are coming off a 23-17 win at home against the New York Giants but they failed to cover as a 9 point home favorite. That SU victory broke a three game losing steak but the non-cover extended their ATS losing streak to 4. They’ve also failed to cover 6 of their last 8 games. Like the Bears, the Eagles have lost money at home (2-5 ATS), on the road (2-4 ATS) as a favorite (2-5 ATS) and an underdog (2-4 ATS). They’re 0-2 ATS as a home underdog and 0-2 ATS a road favorite. The Eagles are in a ‘spirited’ race for the NFC East title with the Dallas Cowboys and the two teams will face off in Philadelphia on Sunday, 12/22.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-8-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a strange team. They’ve actually outperformed expectations straight up with a record of 6-7 heading into Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions. Even though they’ve exceeded expectations, however, they’re 4-8-1 against the spread which is somewhat counterintuitive. Their biggest liability from a pointspread standpoint is their failure to cover at home this season with a record of 0-4-1 ATS despite a 2-3 SU record. On the road, they’re 4-3 SU/ATS. They’re 1-3-1 as a favorite and 3-5 as an underdog. After Sunday’s game at Detroit the Bucs play their final two games of the 2019 season at home hosting Houston on Saturday, December 21 and Atlanta on the final Sunday of the regular season. Quarterback Jameis Winston is in a contract year and there’s no guarantee he’ll be brought back so in theory he’s at least got this motivation down the stretch.
ATLANTA FALCONS (4-8-1 AGAINST THE SPREAD): Speaking of strange teams. The Falcons appear to had quit on the year in late October but have won and covered 3 of their last 5. Two of those wins/covers were against the flatlining Carolina Panthers but they also turned in a very impressive showing beating the New Orleans Saints on the road. Even with their recent uptick it will be very unlikely for Dan Quinn to escape ‘the ax’ this offseason. It’s really hard to make any sense of the Falcons in any phase of the game. Matt Ryan is still a top flight quarterback and there is some talent around him on offense but the defense has deteriorated badly in recent seasons. After Sunday’s game at San Francisco the Falcons play a pair of beatable opponents to finish up the regular season hosting Jacksonville on 12/22 and concluding the year at Tampa Bay on 12/29.
