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NFL Betting – Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Dec/11/2020

Maintaining their lead atop the AFC East by winning five of their last six games, the Buffalo Bills have their sights set on bigger things. They can gain ground for the top seed in the conference by knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers when the AFC heavyweights battle on Sunday night in upstate New York. The Bills trail Pittsburgh and Kansas City by two games as the clubs jockey for position to receive the only playoff bye, and the Steelers looked vulnerable in their last two games squeaking by a shorthanded Baltimore squad then having their perfect season ended by the Football Team.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1000)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Date and Time: Sunday, December 13, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
NFL Odds: Buffalo -2 O/U 48
Steelers at Bills TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

Recent events caused a shift in the line with the Bills now a 2-point favorite. When the early spreads came out Pittsburgh was laying 2.5-points, but poor efforts in their last two games swayed bettors toward the home team. Facing the Ravens without their starting quarterback and a number of other players due to COVID issues, the Steelers were a big 10.5-point favorite. They barely escaped with a 19-14 victory. The Steelers probably didn’t see their undefeated season come to an end at the hands of the team formerly known as the Redskins, but it did. The Steelers lost outright, 23-17, laying 5.5-points. Buffalo won its second straight and fourth in five games beating San Francisco 34-24 on Monday night. The only setback in that stretch came on a desperation heave against the Cardinals in a play now knows as the “Hail Murray.” The Bills have payouts in each of their last four games and are 7-5 ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers had a nice run, but the 1972 Miami Dolphins can rejoice yet again since their perfect season remains the only one in NFL history. Though they never want to lose a game this might be just what Pittsburgh needs. As the season goes along and they continue to win, the odds of losing a game increase. It’s just how things are in today’s NFL. So better to get the loss out of the way now than when January rolls around.

For the second week in a row the Steelers had trouble executing their offense in short-yardage situations and the ground game was nowhere to be found. As a result they had their two lowest scoring games of the season. The Steelers rushed for 68 yards against the Ravens and managed just 21 yards and 1.5 yards per carry against Washington. Their failures were evident during one sequence when they failed to scored from the WFT 1 getting stuffed for no gain on three running plays. It didn’t help that Maurkice Pouncey and James Conner didn’t play, but as Mike Tomlin said, “If you can’t get a yard you don’t deserve to win.”

When things go bad they really go bad. Not only did the Steelers fail to run the football they couldn’t get much going in the passing game thanks to seven drops, giving them a NFL-high 31 drops this season. Yet here the Steelers are with a record of 11-1, so I guess they’re doing something right. That’s on the defensive side where they lead the NFL in fewest points allowed and rank second in total defense.

Buffalo Bills

With a chance to make up for their only loss over the last six games the Bills did, sort of. Returning to Arizona where they were felled on a last second desperation pass in Week 10, the Bills beat the Niners in a game that wasn’t as close as the 34-24 final. That contest was relocated after the Niners were basically kicked out of California. The win also kept the Bills a game up in the AFC East as they seek their first division title since 1995.

Staying ahead of the Dolphins is a priority, but the door for better positioning in the AFC opened up with Pittsburgh’s loss. Surpassing the Chiefs is unlikely since the Bills are two games back and lost to the reigning Super Bowl champs earlier in the season. Catching the Steelers, though, is a possibility. In order to do that Josh Allen has to be at his best against a punishing Steelers defense.

Allen shredded the Niners going 32 of 40 for 375 yards with four touchdowns. He became the first Bills quarterback to complete 80 percent of his passes with four touchdowns in a game by using his top wide receivers. Cole Beasley had nine catches for 130 yards and Stephon Diggs added 10 grabs for 92 yards. The Bills rushed for 81 yards on 27 carries and more production on the ground would help against the Steelers. Allen also needs to value the football. He lost a fumble last week giving him five turnovers in the last three games and 14 for the season. And of course Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 23 takeaways.

Bet Steelers at Bills at BookMaker.eu

We didn’t expect the Steelers to be 11-1 at this point so they are ahead of schedule. And while the offense has sputtered the last few games, the return of Conner should boost the ground game. And I like Pittsburgh’s defense. The group will make things difficult with their relentless pass rush and Allen is likely to make a few mistakes allowing the Steelers to get the victory.

NFL Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Bills 24

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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