NFL Betting Picks – New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The way things are going in the AFC the New England Patriots could have a free ride to another Super Bowl. One of two unbeatens remaining in the NFL, the Pats have a two-game bulge in the loss column over several teams in the conference, including the Baltimore Ravens, who host the Pats in the Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup. New England’s lockdown defense will get a stiff test from Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ run-heavy attack, which leads the NFL and ranks second in both total offense and points per game. The Pats, who are 6-2 against the spread, opened as a 4.5-point road favorite for this AFC showdown.

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Date and Time: Sunday, November 3, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: MT Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

Opening NFL Odds: New England -4.5, O/U 46.5

Patriots at Ravens TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

The Pats have been favored in every game this season and they are riding a four-game streak of successful covers. Opening at -4.5, this would be the smallest spread they’ve faced all season. And to make sure that stays the case, the number was wagered down to -3 by some early support for the home team. Baltimore followed a two-game losing streak by winning its past three games, breaking a string of five straight spread losses with a 30-16 win over Seattle prior to the bye week. While the Ravens are coming off their bye, this is the Pats last game before theirs. The total dropped two-points to 44.5 after hitting the board.

New England Patriots

With what he’s accomplished over his brilliant career, Tom Brady will go down as one of the best if not the best ever in the NFL. Still, this season has been about the Patriots’ defense and its historically great pace. Brady is having another strong season but the numbers are down by his standards. And as a result the offense hasn’t been as efficient.

How can that be for a team that leads the NFL in scoring at 31.2 points per game you ask? Well, the defense has given short fields back to Brady with the help of a league-high 25 takeaways. The Pats have 19 interceptions this season. The next closest team has 10. Nine different players have at least one pick with Devin McCourty leading the team and the NFL with five. Their plus-17 turnover differential is also tops in the league.

Cleveland’s run-heavy game plan worked against the Pats last week. Nick Chubb ran for 131 yards and the Browns amassed 159 yards with a 7.2 yards per carry average. That didn’t allow New England’s pass defense to win the game, but the Pats were able to turn three takeaways into 14 points and win the game by ... you guessed it 14 points, 27-13. They covered the 9.5-point closing line for their fourth straight cover win, all when facing a spread of at least 9.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens

Following a satisfying 30-16 win over Seattle, their third in a row and first ATS after five straight cover losses, the Ravens enjoyed their bye with an extra week to get prepped for this showdown. Winning is all that matters in the NFL and the Ravens have done that with a 5-2 SU record. However, their four wins prior to the Seattle game where against Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, teams currently with a combined record of 6-24-1. Other than the Dolphins matchup, the Ravens were less than impressive, which is a reason why they are 2-5 ATS.

The knock against Lamar Jackson is that he’s a one-dimensional quarterback. He did nothing to disprove that against the Seahawks by running for 116 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while completing just 9 of 20 passes. It’s not an issue when you’re winning and that could actually benefit LJ and the Ravens on Sunday night. He certainly doesn’t want to throw against the Pats and they were vulnerable against the Browns.

The Ravens have gotten the most out of their byes recently winning the last three times following an off week with two of those victories taking place on home turf. And they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games after a bye. Baltimore will need to run the ball effectively and stay out of passing situations, and they must hold onto the football to have a chance.

Bet Patriots at Ravens at

The Pats just keep rolling along behind their old man Brady, and with a renewed vigor on the defensive side they lead the NFL in points scored and fewest points allowed per game. That’s hard to do. As long as Jackson isn’t star-struck by the opponent there’s no reason why he shouldn’t frustrate the New England D. But, like they always do the Pats will adjust and Brady will have success against a Ravens defense that isn’t what it used to be. With the line coming down I’m going to back the visitors and the over.

NFL Score Prediction: New England 28, Baltimore 17

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