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NFL Betting – Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Sep/23/2020

A rather mundane Thursday night affair between a pair of rebuilding teams now has a catchy edge with the starting quarterbacks dueling over facial hair. We all have our own opinions on the subject and we’ll let Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew settle their differences on the field when the Miami Dolphins visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in an all Sunshine State showdown. The Jags are off to a surprising 1-1 start, falling from the unbeaten ranks with a heartbreaking loss to AFC runner-up Tennessee last week. They’ll look for their third straight win over the Dolphins as a field goal favorite on the NFL betting line.   Bookmaker is offering a generous welcome bonus ($1600 max bonus - limited time only).

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars 

Date and Time: Thursday, September 24, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET 

Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL 

Opening NFL Odds: PK, O/U 44 

Dolphins at Jaguars TV Coverage: NFL Network

Odds Analysis

Minshew Mania has returned. The game opened as a pick ‘em but soon turned in favor of the home team lifting the Jags to -3 at most sportsbooks. With the second-year pro tossing three scoring passes the Jags upset Indy in the opener, 27-20, as a 7-point dog. They also got seven points on the line and another three TD passes from Minshew but lost by three last week on a late field goal. The Jags covered three straight last September extending their ATS win streak to five in the opening month of the NFL season. Miami had a better showing offensively and on the scoreboard last week yet they dropped to 0-2 with 31-28 cover against Buffalo. There’s also been plenty of movement on the total with the number spiking four points to its current 48.

Miami Dolphins

Fitzpatrick may have saved his starting job for at least another game with his performance against Buffalo. And working on a short week is also a plus for him. However, if the Dolphins continue to lose will Brian Flores pull the trigger on a QB change? After all Fitz is only keeping the seat warm for when Tua Tagovailoa is ready. And we already saw the other two quarterbacks taken in the top-10 in the recent draft take the field and perform well. 

After struggling in their Week 1 loss to the Patriots, there were encouraging signs from Fitz and the offense against a good Bills squad. Miami compiled 410 yards and did not commit a turnover. Fitz threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns a week after going for 191 yards with three picks. For the second straight game the Fins failed to reach 100 yards on the ground. Miami got the backdoor cover on a last-minute Fitzpatrick scoring pass and 2-point conversion, ending a 0-6 ATS losing streak in September games.

While Miami fans were chanting “Tua, Tua” last week, they should have chanted “defense, defense.” Not that it would have helped, but at this point the Dolphins could use anything. They were gouged on the ground by New England and Josh Allen set career-highs in yards and touchdowns through the air last week. Further compounding the problem was the loss of corner Byron Jones, who is questionable to play this week. That’s why the total has skyrocketed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

They might lose the rest of their games and people will say ‘I told you so.’ But the Jags have shown a lot of fight after gutting the roster in the offseason. They trailed on four occasions to Indianapolis before scoring the game’s final 10 points for the outright 27-20 win. The numbers didn’t look good but the end result sure did. The Jags had more than 200 fewer total yards and possessed the football for seven fewer minutes. They were efficient, though. Minshew had just one incompletion in 20 pass attempts with three touchdowns and the Jags played a clean game.

Minshew had three more touchdown passes last week and Jags battled back from two-touchdown deficits four times forging a tie midway through the fourth quarter. Minshew had 339 pass yards and was picked off twice. When Leonard Fournette was cut loose many wondered how the ground game would work. Thanks to undrafted rookie James Robinson it’s been just fine. Robinson had 102 yards on 16 carries against the Titans. 

The commitment to a rebuild and young roster has its drawbacks, though. While guys like Minshew, Robinson, Laviska Shenault and C.J. Henderson are likely to improve, the team has to deal with the inconsistencies. Tennessee scored a touchdown on three of its first four possessions and the Jags have been outscored 21-7 in the first quarter.

Bet Dolphins at Jaguars at BookMaker.eu

Defense has been the weak link for both clubs early on giving value to the OVER. That number has climbed since hitting the board with the public having the same idea. I’m hesitant now, though I do think it’s still a good play. I’m not ready to throw in the towel on the Dolphins and with three points coming their way I’ll back the Fins against the line.

NFL Score Prediction: Jaguars 28, Dolphins 27

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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