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Week 7 of the NFL season gets started on Thursday night with an AFC West tilt between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. The division has tightened up over the last two weeks with the favorite Chiefs losing two in a row. The Broncos are feeling good after winning two straight with a blanking of the Titans last week that sent Marcus Mariota to the bench. KC has won the last seven meetings between the long-time rivals, including four straight in the Mile High City, and is a 3-point favorite on the current NFL betting line.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Date and Time: Thursday, October 17, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Opening NFL Odds: Kansas City -5.5, O/U 50.5
Chiefs at Broncos TV Coverage: FOX/NFL Network
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen plenty of movement on the line since it hit the board at KC -5.5. Typical overreaction by the betting public in the wake of the Chiefs slide and the Broncos resurgence saw the spread drop to -3 with the home team getting plenty of support. The Chiefs have been favored in every game this season, but they’ve lost the last three against the line, losing the last outright to Indy and Houston at home. Denver is back in the race thanks to a defense that pitched a shutout last week and surrendered just 13 points to the Chargers prior to that. Both games played below the total and the UNDER is 4-2 in their games.
Kansas City Chiefs
What’s wrong with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense? The better question is what’s wrong with the defense. It is a bit alarming when the team isn’t scoring 40 points a game since it seems like all Mahomes does is throw touchdown passes. But opponents are doing their best to stop him and we saw the Lions hold the MVP without a scoring pass a few weeks ago. Still, the Chiefs have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with 28.7 points and 422 yards per game to rank among the top-5.
The return of Tyreek Hill was a boost to the offense last week. Back after missing the previous four games, Hill was his electric self with a pair of touchdowns on five catches. He should be utilized more going forward and will be counted on for increased production with Sammy Watkins out. The Chiefs haven’t put up the dizzying numbers like they did last season, but they are a solid offensive team.
Holes on defense were addressed with the offseason additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu, but the group remains a mystery and has a lot of difficulty stopping the run. Over the last four games opponents have averaged 190 yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry while reaching the end zone eight times. The Chiefs have also allowed a 100-yard runner in each of those games. “Until we stop it, we’re going to see it,” coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said.
Denver Broncos
Not only do the Broncos have a chance to close the gap in the division, they can end an embarrassing losing skid to their rival. The teams have played twice a year since becoming charter members of the AFL in 1960, and the Broncos have never lost more games consecutively since the merger than the seven in a row they’ve currently dropped. KC won the last meeting, 30-23, though the Broncos covered the 9-point spread to end a 6-game ATS slide.
The Broncos aren’t going to win a shootout with their popgun offense so they need another strong effort from the defense. If anyone can devise a game plan to stop the Chiefs it’s Vic Fangio, the long-time defensive coordinator put some stellar groups together in San Francisco and Chicago, and the Broncos are catching on. They recorded the second shutout of the NFL season last week with seven sacks and three interceptions of Tennessee quarterbacks.
We can expect to see a lot of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay to exploit KC’s deficiencies in stopping the run. They’ve each amassed over 400 scrimmage yards and have been the bright spots in a unit that averages just 17.6 points per game.
Bet Chiefs at Broncos at BookMaker.eu
With Mahomes operating on a bum ankle and two O line starters ruled out it makes me wonder if KC can put up enough points to cash the over. This probably won’t be a track meet, but I still like KC’s offense and the Chiefs will figure out how to stop the run. The Broncos will break the long losing streak at some point. It’s just not going to be on Thursday.
NFL Score Prediction: Kansas City 26, Denver 20
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- This article courtesy of Bookmaker and Phil Simon
