NFL Betting – Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints not only have to overcome a heartbreaking loss last week to San Francisco that prevented them from grabbing the top seed in the NFC, they now have to get by without the services of defensive standouts Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins, who both went on injured reserve. The good news is that the Saints have clinched the South title, but getting a first-round playoff bye isn’t going to be easy. Neither is beating the Indianapolis Colts, who enter with faint playoff hopes after losing five of their last six games. New Orleans surfaced as an 8.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

Date and Time: Monday, December 16, 2019, 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Opening NFL Odds: New Orleans -8.5, O/U 44

Colts at Saints TV Coverage: ESPN

Odds Analysis

Losing five of six and going on the road to one of the best teams in the NFC, the Colts opened as an 8.5-point dog. The line dropped slightly but was wagered back up to +9 later in the week. Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, but Indy’s defensive struggles have the betting public backing the Saints. The Colts blew a 14-point second half lead in a loss to Tampa Bay last week to fall under .500 at 6-7 SU and 6-5-2 ATS. They need to win out and get a lot of help to reach the postseason. Down several starters last week the Saints defense was exposed in a loss to the Niners. We saw the total spike to 46.5 after hitting the board at 44.

Indianapolis Colts

Through the first half of the season Frank Reich was getting votes for coach of the year. The sudden retirement of Andrew Luck could have sent the Colts into a tailspin, but they opened by winning five of their first seven games. It’s been the exact opposite so far in the second half. Since their Week 8 win over Denver, the Colts are 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS with their only victory over the hapless Jaguars. They’ve dropped three in a row seriously impacting their chances of reaching the postseason.

The last two games were particularly troublesome allowing 69 points combined to Tennessee and Tampa Bay. We expected some regression from the offense with Luck no longer around, and the group hasn’t disappointed. Ranked in the top-5 last season in scoring, the Colts are currently 17th with 22.8 points per game. The defense did its part last season helping Indy to the playoffs, but that hasn’t been the case in 2019.

Jameis Winston threw for 456 yards with four touchdowns and the Bucs scored the game’s final 17 points to hand the Colts a hard luck 38-35 defeat. The week before Indy had a 17-7 lead in the third before the Titans rattled off the final 24 points with Derrick Henry rushing for 149 yards in a 31-17 Tennessee triumph. Their inability to close games will keep them out of the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints

You have to wonder where the Saints’ heads are going to be for this matchup. They have the division and a playoff spot clinched, but are dealing with a number of injuries on defense. Will they play it safe and get ready for the playoffs or will they go after a top seed and a first round bye? I’m leaning toward the latter just because I can’t imagine Sean Payton and Drew Brees taking it easy with three games still to play. And facing a defense that’s been awful in the second half recently, New Orleans has a good chance to put up points.

Brees threw for 349 yards and five touchdowns and the Saints amassed 465 total yards against San Francisco’s top defense. The problem is that they surrendered 516 yards and 48 points in the loss. It looked like a Saints game from previous years when the defense was non-existent and Brees had to keep his club in the game. He’s done a masterful job inside the Superdome completing 74.8 percent of his passes while averaging 338 yards per game at home.

With the defense crippled by injuries Brees may need to have a big game. And he certainly wants to get Alvin Kamara back in a groove. Kamara has gone eight games without scoring a touchdown, but the Saints’ offense hasn’t faltered. On the other side of the ball getting players acquainted with new spots on the field will be a priority before the playoffs roll around.

Bet Colts at Saints at BookMaker.eu

The Saints may have the fifth-best run defense but their numbers are likely to go up with the loss of several players. We saw the Niners go for 162 yards last week and Marlon Mack should get plenty of carries. However, the Colts don’t have the firepower to keep up Brees and Co. and I can see the Saints have a rebound game after their heartbreaker last week.

NFL Score Prediction: New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 20

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com Special Contributor