NFL Betting – Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Thursday Night Football

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The tightest division in the NFL will get some separation when AFC South co-leaders Indianapolis and Houston square off on Thursday Night Football. Just two games separate the Colts and Texans from last place Jacksonville with the Titans sandwiched between them. Houston looked like the team to beat winning four of five until last week’s thrashing by Baltimore. That allowed the Colts to gain some ground and they did by fending off division rival Jacksonville. Indy can sweep the season series and give itself a big edge in the tie-break category with a victory. The Colts have won five of the last six meetings, including a 30-23 triumph just a few weeks ago.

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Date and Time: Thursday, November 21, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Opening NFL Odds: Houston -6, O/U 46.5

Colts at Texans TV Coverage: FOX/NFL Network

Odds Analysis

The Texans opened at -6 and there has been a dip in the spread with sharp action backing the visitors. The line currently has the hosts at -3.5 with the Colts’ moneyline at -195. The teams met just a few weeks ago with Indy claiming a 30-23 victory getting the cover as a 1.5-point favorite with the teams cashing the over on a closing total of 46.5. The Colts snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS losing streak with their 33-13 win over the Jags last week. They are 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS on the road. Coming off their bye the Texans were manhandled by Baltimore, 41-7, last week. After playing four of their last five games on the road and having a bye, the Texans finally return home where they are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS.

Indianapolis Colts

It’s only been a few weeks, but the Colts will have a different look on Thursday night from the one they had when they beat the Texans last month. For one, leading rusher Marlon Mack is sidelined with a broken hand and will miss several games. Mack exited last week’s game after compiling 109 yards and a touchdown. He’s the fifth-leading rusher in the NFL. Jonathan Williams saw additional snaps following Mack and rushed for 116 yards. The Colts totaled 264 yards on the ground, their most in Frank Reich’s tenure.

Running the football is an added bonus. Jacoby Brissett doesn’t chuck the ball all over the yard and will be less inclined to do so with T.Y. Hilton on the shelf. And keep in mind Brissett just returned from an injury that forced him to miss the Miami game, which the Colts lost 16-12. Brissett returned last week and was efficient throwing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 15 of 24 passing. The Colts didn’t need him to put up big numbers since the runners were.

Last week’s 33-13 win ended the Colts two-game slide and lifted them into a tie at the top of the division. Favored by 2.5-points on the closing line, the Cots were also able to snap their three-game ATS skid. Their loss to Pittsburgh a few weeks dropped the Colts to 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when getting points. They beat Houston, 30-23, on Oct. 20 right after their bye, cashing the over on the closing total of 46.5.

Houston Texans

Seemingly taking control of the division by winning four of five, the Texans had a major setback last week losing, 41-7, in Baltimore and failing to cover as a 4-point underdog. Some past issues came back to haunt Houston in its lowest scoring game of the season. The Ravens aren’t the same defensively, but you wouldn’t have known it by watching this game, which makes the outcome that much more disturbing.

DeShaun Watson was hit 10 times and took six sacks against a Ravens team that had 17 sacks entering the contest. With little time to do anything the offense suffered. The Texans managed just 232 total yards and were 2 of 10 on third downs. The Colts have their issues on defense, but if they can get to Watson things flip in their favor.

Before their humiliating loss in Baltimore, the Texans had impressive wins over Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes and an improved Oakland team. But the Colts have given the Texans problems recently. Houston is just 1-5 SU and ATS in the last five meetings, and they’ve struggled to contain Brissett, who has seven touchdown passes and is 3-0 against them as a starter.

Bet Colts at Texans at BookMaker.eu

The Colts are missing some key pieces of their offense, and the Texans aren’t as bad as they looked last week. Give Watson and his stable of playmakers some time and Houston should be able to look competent on offense. However, Brissett and the Colts have given Houston plenty of problems over the years and I like the points as a bonus.

NFL Score Prediction: Indianapolis 26, Houston 24

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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