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NFL Betting – Green Bay Packers Win Total

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Aug/10/2020

  • Packers favored to win under 9 regular season games in 2020

  • As a whole Green Bay could have a better team than last year and finish with a worse record

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The Green Bay Packers were a bit of a surprise last year. After two losing seasons and the departure of long-time coach Mike McCarthy they went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship, winning their most regular season games since 2011. Oddsmakers aren’t convinced the Pack is back, setting their 2020 win total at nine. A healthy Aaron Rodgers certainly makes a difference and when he says he can play at an elite level for a few more seasons you have to believe him. But did the team do enough to surround the future Hall of Famer with enough weapons to reach double digit wins?

Green Bay Packers Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu

Packers Over 9 Wins +108
Packers Under 9 Wins -130


2020 Green Bay Packers Offense Preview

It wasn’t a typical Rodgers-led offense we saw in 2019. Green Bay ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories scoring 23.5 points (15th) while averaging 345.5 yards (18th). And it all started with Rodgers. He had a fine season completing 62 percent of his throws for 4,002 yards with 26 touchdowns, finishing with a 95.4 passer rating. One thing AR doesn’t do is turn the ball over. He tossed only four picks last year topping the NFL in interception percentage.

While many felt the Packers would look for help at receiver in the draft, they instead selected Jordon Love, the likely successor to Rodgers. That added a layer of intrigue to the season, but Rodgers knows too well it’s a business. “I’ve always felt like it doesn’t matter who you bring in, they’re not going to be able to beat me out any time soon. I feel really confident about my abilities and my play,” Rodgers said.

The ground game is in good hands with Aaron Jones, who ran for 1,084 yards with a league-high 19 total touchdowns. Second round pick AJ Dillon will get some reps. Davante Adams had more than twice as many catches as the next receiver, but the group has some consistency with Rodgers and should be better in 2020. Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling combined for 61 catches and five touchdowns a season ago. The Packers aren’t going to be worse offensively than they were in 2019 and they have the potential to put up bigger numbers.

2020 Green Bay Packers Defense Preview

The Packers did a nice job preventing opponents from putting up a lot of points. They surrendered just 19.6 a game to finish among the top-10. However, they allowed a lot of yards and the group was exposed in the loss to the Niners in the NFC Championship. The Pack allowed over 120 yards per game on the ground and they were scorched for 285 by San Francisco.

Other than swapping Christian Kirksey for Blake Martinez at linebacker not much changed from a player standpoint. Many thought Mike Pettine would be replaced after the debacle in SF, but that wasn’t the case. The coordinator was brought back with hopes of improving a group that ranked 18th in total defense.

The biggest chore is improving the run defense. Kenny Clark is one of the top nose tackles in the league and with help on the edge from Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith that could happen. The Smiths can get to the quarterback combining for 25.5 sacks, stopping the run is an area that needs improvement. The secondary looks strong with all four starters returning after each had at least two picks.

2020 Green Bay Packers Schedule Analysis

Last season might have been a surprise with 13 victories easily cashing the over on the Packers’ projected win total. Three fewer wins in 2020 and they’re another winner for over bettors. I like their chances. The NFC North isn’t the most dominant division. Minnesota has plenty of question marks and the Bears have to figure out their quarterback situation. Meanwhile, the Lions are the Lions.

Playing four of their first six games on the road isn’t ideal. Neither is having the bye in Week 5. Those are issues that question whether or not the Packers exceed their win total. The good news is that the back end of the slate is loaded with home games and the Pack usually performs well at Lambeau. The ground game will get tested with several of those matchups having the potential to be in tough conditions in December. Still, the schedule doesn’t appear to be overwhelming and I can easily see the Packers reaching double figures.

Bet Green Bay Packers Win Total at BookMaker.eu

A lot went right last year allowing the Packers to rattle off 13 wins and a division title. Another season with Rodgers in Matt LaFleur’s offense, an attention to detail on the defensive side and continued health should allow them to win at least 10 games, though I expect more. Rodgers feels he has several years at an elite level remaining and the surrounding group should be better. As a whole Green Bay could have a better team than last year and finish with a worse record, though they still cash the over on wins.

NFL Odds: Green Bay Packers OVER 9 Wins

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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