NFL Betting – Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The New Orleans Saints got over the sting of losing Drew Brees pretty quickly. Winning on the road in the most hostile environment in the NFL helps. The Saints will need more from Teddy Bridgewater if they want to hang the first loss of the season on the Dallas Cowboys. The Boys have benefitted from a soft opening schedule, but they still had to win the games. There would have been a much different line on the board had Brees not banged up his digit a few weeks back. As it is Dallas is a field-goal favorite on the current NFL betting line and enters with a 3-0 ATS record.

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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Date and Time: Sunday, September 29, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Opening NFL Odds: Dallas -3, O/U 45

Cowboys at Saints TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

The Cowboys played as the favorite in each of their first three games and this one makes it four straight with them -3 on the opening line. The spread would be much different with a healthy Brees, but injuries are a part of the game. There was some buyback pushing the line to -2.5, but the Boys are getting a majority of action from the betting public. The absence of Brees is also affecting the total. Prior to last week 17 of 20 New Orleans regular season games closed with a total of 50 or higher. The number settled at 44 last week, which the teams easily exceeded. The total for this one hit the board at 45 and was bet up to 47.

Dallas Cowboys

Are the Boys for real? That 3-0 SU and ATS start looks good but when you peel away the layers, is it really? Dallas opened the year with a 35-17 win over the Giants and captured another NFC East victory the following week over Washington, 31-21. A 22-point favorite last week, their largest line since at least 1987, the Cowboys throttled the hapless Dolphins 31-6. Those three teams have one win between them while being outscored by a combined 321-142.

There were some folks sweating in the Dallas heat and over the Cowboys’ first half performance last week. That 22-point spread wasn’t looking so good when the Boys were up just 10-6 after a sluggish first half performance. Their second half showing was worthy of a Super Bowl contender. A big difference between this year and last is their play in the third quarter. The Boys scored a touchdown on their opening second half drive in all three games and Dak Prescott is perfect, completing all 22 of his third quarter passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns.

It’s been a more balanced attack this year with Prescott having a marvelous start. No longer are teams keying on Ezekiel Elliott and forcing Dak to beat them, because he’s doing just that. And we have to mention the defense, which is one of four units allowing fewer than 15 points per game. The Boys stifled Brees and the Saints last year holding them to 176 total yards in a 13-10 victory.

New Orleans Saints

It’s clear the offense isn’t going to be as explosive with Bridgewater under center. So the Saints have to find other ways to score points and not rely on their backup the way they would Brees. Well, they got a total team effort in a win over the Seahawks. It was the first win for the Saints without Brees starting and it also proved that talk of the team’s demise is premature.

The first score of the game came on a 53-yard punt return. The second touchdown was courtesy of a Vonn Bell fumble return. Those plays were huge since the offense produced just 265 yards. Bridgewater was efficient in his first meaningful start and second overall since a devastating leg injury in 2016 nearly ended his career. He was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. Alvin Kamara picked up a lot of the slack with 161 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

The numbers looked bad for the defense after allowing 514 yards. However, 225 of those yards came in the fourth quarter when the Seahawks made a valiant comeback when trailing by 20 points entering the stanza. I don’t think New Orleans will be lenient on Sunday.

Bet Cowboys at Saints at BookMaker.eu

It would be easy to fade the Saints with Brees out of the lineup. They proved last week that everybody is ready to step up and make plays. And remember, Bridgewater was the toast of Minnesota a few years back when he led the Vikings to an 11-5 record and the playoffs while earning a Pro Bowl nod. Now that he has some reps under his belt I think the offense can be productive enough to beat Dallas.

NFL Score Prediction: New Orleans 27, Dallas 24

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- This article courtesy of Phil Simon of Bookmaker.eu

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