NFL Betting – AFC Wild Card Games 2020

We’re used to seeing the New England Patriots in the postseason, but playing on Wild Card Weekend is something different. For the first time since 2009 the Pats are playing on the opening weekend and there are concerns about the defending champs after a loss to Miami in the regular season finale denied them a bye. The rebirth of Ryan Tannehill can reach legendary status if the former Dolphins castoff can author a win for his Tennessee Titans over the Pats as a 4.5-point dog. The early Saturday game has the Buffalo Bills in search of their first playoff win since 1995, but it’s only their fifth appearance since then. The Bills opened as a 3-point dog against AFC South champion Houston Texans.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Date and Time: Saturday, January 4, 2030, 4:35 p.m. ET

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Opening NFL Odds: Houston -3, O/U 41

Bills at Texans TV Coverage: ESPN, ABC

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Preview

With their postseason fates determined, both teams took it easy last week resting regulars and they suffered for it. The Bills lost to the Jets and the Texans were embarrassed by Tennessee. That means nothing, though, as we head into the second season. What last week did do was give some important pieces for each side some much needed rest, which will only benefit them after a grueling regular season. The Bills ended a 17-year playoff drought two seasons ago, but they went down with a whimper in a 10-3 loss to Jacksonville. That started a mini-rebuild with plenty of turnover on the offensive side.

The Bills failed to score more than 17 points in any of their last four games and they went just 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS in that span. They finished in the bottom third of the NFL in total offense and points per game and will need to score more to get their first playoff win since 1995. Josh Allen threw for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns but completed less than 59 percent of his throws. Behind Allen and Devin Singletary they can run the ball. But the Bills won 10 games thanks to a stingy defense that ranked second in fewest points per game allowed and third in yards allowed.

The Texans won their division for the fourth time in five years yet they have just one more playoff win than Buffalo over that stretch. Will Fuller returned to practice this week and that’s a good sign for the Texans, who are a different team when he’s on the field. They score nearly seven points more per game and are 8-3 with Fuller in the lineup, and that’s huge in what has the potential to be a low-scoring affair. Houston also activated J.J. Watt and he will play, bolstering the NFL’s 28th ranked defense. Can Watt be effective, though? The Texans’ defense was awful in the red zone and opponents converted nearly 50 percent on third down, which has me leaning toward the visitors.

NFL Score Prediction: Buffalo 20, Houston 16

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

Date and Time: Saturday, January 4, 2030, 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Opening NFL Odds: New England -5.5, O/U 42.5

Titans at Patriots TV Coverage: CBS

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Preview

That loss to Miami last week turned a lot of people away from the Pats, who opened as a 5.5-point favorite only to have the spread bet down a point to -4.5. They are the Pats and they are the defending champions, but never have they looked so vulnerable. We’ve seen them lose games at the end of a season in the past when there was nothing to play for. They had a first-round bye in their sights and were favored by 17.5-points and lost outright to the Fins, putting them in the wild card round for the first time since 2009.

After opening the season at 8-0, the Pats went just 4-4 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in the second half. Tom Brady and the offense struggled scoring more than 24 points once in the final eight contests. And while the defense led the league with 14.1 points per game allowed, the unit regressed yielding at least 23 points in four of the final eight games losing each one. So, the path to a Titans victory is clear. Score more than 23 points and they advance. Not so easy when the playoffs roll around, though.

Mike Vrabel made a huge move mid-season switching to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The veteran will do something he never accomplished in his seven years in Miami and that’s play in a postseason game. He sure earned it, though. Tannehill went 7-3 after taking over as the team’s starter throwing for 2,742 yards and 22 touchdowns while compiling a NFL-best 117.5 passer rating. He also has the league’s top rusher behind him. Derrick Henry amassed 211 yards to finish with 1,540 giving the Pats something else to worry about. However, I’m not convinced that this is the end for Brady, who tends to flip the switch in big moments.

NFL Score Prediction: New England 27, Tennessee 20

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com