NFL Betting – 2019 Week 1 Wise Guy Picks

With Week 1 of the 2019 NFL regular season upon us it’s time to switch gears a bit. It’s not that teams didn’t want to win during the preseason, but let’s face it, there wasn’t a big emphasis on the Ws and Ls since the games don’t count. Now that winning is the only thing that matters, betting on the games that count is much different than wagering on the exhibition contests.

If you’re not into doing your own research on NFL betting lines at online sportsbooks, one rule of thumb is to follow the money. Books pay closer attention to wise guys than they do the average bettor. Wise guys can influence a betting line in any sport, and when they do make a wager the books are watching, and so should you. Following sharp action can be profitable, especially during Week 1 of the NFL season when there are still plenty of unknowns.

We can’t always tell what wise guys, aka sharps, are doing, but tracking the line can help you be a smarter bettor. Wise guys do their research and make smart bets. And one thing you can be sure of is that they know what they’re doing. Let’s take a look at a few games on the Week 1 schedule where the sharps have impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every NFL matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite NFL team

NFL Week 1 Wise Guy Picks

Baltimore Ravens ( -6.5, 39 ) at Miami Dolphins

You don’t have to be a wise guy to know the Dolphins are looking ahead to 2020 already. They purged the roster by trading away a number of veteran players and don’t have much left. They are young, inexperienced, and according to coach Brian Flores, they are NOT tanking. They may not try to lose games, but they’ll certainly struggle to win them with less talent than just about every other team.

Sharps and squares are united in this one. We typically don’t see squares impact the line so if there is significant movement that means sharps are hitting it. Even though the spread didn’t cross a key number, a 3-point swing is significant. The Ravens are a playoff team from last year and they have their sights on bigger things. Lamar Jackson is the starter with Joe Flacco now in Denver, and he brings a dynamic to the offense. Jackson made strides improving his passing making him even more difficult to defend. The Ravens opened -3.5 on look-ahead lines released in April and the number spiked as high as -7 before retreating a half-point.

Kansas City Chiefs ( -3, 51.5 ) at Jacksonville Jaguars

When you look at a line and say ‘huh’, that means something is going on. That’s what we have in this matchup. The Chiefs vaulted ahead of the Patriots at some offshore sportsbooks as the favorite to win Super Bowl, they have reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, and an upgraded defense. The Jags? Well they have Nick Foles at quarterback after the Blake Bortles era finally came to an end.

The Chiefs opened -5 and when the bets started rolling in they were on the public side with over 60 percent of the action. That number continued and logical thinking would see that number go up to even the money. It didn’t. The spread dropped a few points and currently sits at -3 with the Chiefs still seeing a majority of the money. Sharps are backing the Jags based on a solid defense that could be as good as the 2017 group. The addition of Foles and bounce back from Leonard Fournette will make the offense better.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders ( PK, 43.5 )

Apparently the lame-duck Oakland Raiders are at the bottom of the wise guys list. At least they are this week. Management should just come out and tell fans that the Raiders are preparing for their time in Las Vegas. Jon Gruden dismantled the roster when he took over and it’s hard to imagine this group being a contender in the conference or division in 2019. Chucky talks a big game and he sold his team to the public with the Raiders opening -3 for their AFC West showdown with Denver on Monday night.

Just like we saw in the Baltimore game, the line moved 3-points and currently sits on the board as a pick em. Those two games are the biggest line-movers so far of Week 1. And again, when the line shifts that much there is usually some wise guy action. I guess they feel John Elway has to get his coach and quarterback decisions right eventually, the odds are in his favor after some disastrous moves. Vic Fangio and Joe Flacco should have a good time together in Denver.

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