NFL Betting 2019 – Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

The New England Patriots have rarely been tested during their run of 10 straight AFC East titles. They’ve finally met some resistance on their way to No. 11. The Pats and Buffalo Bills have already clinched a berth in the upcoming NFL playoffs, but there is plenty at stake when the division rivals square off Saturday. New England can clinch another division crown and has a chance to earn a first-round bye. The Bills can match the Pats by doing something they haven’t done much of recently. Buffalo has lost six straight in the series, including a 16-10 setback in Week 4.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Date and Time: Saturday, December 21, 2019, 4:30 p.m. ET

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Opening NFL Odds: New England -6.5, O/U 38.5

Bills at Patriots TV Coverage: NFL Network

Odds Analysis

Considering the success New England has had against Buffalo over the years it’s fitting they surfaced as 6.5-point chalk. The line jumped to -7 before some buyback on the visitors dropped the number to its current -6. The Pats have won the last six meetings but failed to cover in the last two. They were a 7-point road favorite in Week 4 and came out on top 16-10. Buffalo’s only two wins over the last eight seasons have been in Foxboro; 16-0 in 2016 and 17-9 in 2014. The total was bet down to 36.5 after opening at 38.5. The teams played below the total in the last three matchups and the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10. Winter weather expected in the area could impact the number of points.

Buffalo Bills

Ending a 17-year playoff drought two years ago, the Bills are back in the postseason and have won 10 games for the first time this century. Few teams have an easier schedule than the Bills, but they still have to win the games, and they have. Making a rare Sunday night appearance last week, they won just their second game against a team that currently has a winning record, besting the Steelers behind another strong defensive showing.

Of course it helped that they were facing a third-string quarterback, but the Bills locked down on Devlin Hodges, emerging with a 17-10 playoff-clinching triumph. And not many defenses have played better over the last two months. The Bills held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less while going 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in that stretch. They also cashed the UNDER six times in that span and 11 times in 14 games overall.

Buffalo ranks second to New England in points per game allowed at 15.9, and is third in the NFL in total defense conceding only 291.9 yards per outing. The group has propped up a below average offense. Buffalo is 22nd in yards and points per game. Josh Allen completes less than 60 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns. Three of his nine interceptions this season came against the Pats in Week 4.

New England Patriots

In a season where Tom Brady has struggled, the Pats defense has come up big. Taking advantage of a break in the schedule New England ripped NFL-worst Cincinnati, 34-13, last week, covering the 10.5-point spread to end a three-game ATS losing streak. It was the most points scored in a game since a 35-point outburst against the Giants in Week 6, and just the second time the Pats scored more than 20 points in the last six games.

When I say Brady has struggled, we are talking about Brady standards. He hasn’t completed more than 56 percent of his passes in the last five games and his overall percentage of 60.1 is an all-time low. And three times during that span he’s passed for fewer than 200 yards. He was 15 of 29 for 128 yards with a pair of touchdowns against the Bengals. Despite ranking 18th in total yards, the Pats are scoring nearly 27 points per game to place in the top-10.

The defense has been lights out leading the NFL in fewest yards and points allowed per game. The Pats padded to their league leading totals of 25 interceptions and 36 takeaways last week by picking off four passes and recovering a fumble. They have at least one takeaway in 13 games and had four in the first meeting with three picks of Allen and one off backup Matt Barkley.

Bet Bills at Patriots at BookMaker.eu

The teams haven’t been efficient offensively lately and the two best defenses in the NFL give this contest a serious shot at going under the total. The Bills have something to prove, but so do the Pats after weeks of turmoil on and off the field. A playoff atmosphere in expected difficult conditions has me looking at the UNDER with the Bills getting a cover.

NFL Score Prediction: New England 17, Buffalo 14

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com