NCAA Tournament Betting Preview – Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

The first-round power conference NCAA Tournament matchup between the Missouri Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners has a number of plot twists. Both teams reached the top-10 in the national rankings during the regular season and both stumbled down the stretch reaching the Dance as middle-seeded teams. Neither one is going to win a national championship this season, but Saturday’s game is one of the more evenly-matched contests with the Sooners laying 1-point on the college basketball betting line. OU will have to navigate around the absence of second-leading scorer DeVion Harmon, who recently tested positive for COVID.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous CASH welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date and Time: Saturday, March 20, 2021, 7:25 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Opening College Basketball Odds: Oklahoma -1, O/U 139.5
Missouri vs. Oklahoma TV Coverage: TNT

Odds Analysis

How do you begin to handicap a game between teams so similar? Both Mizzou and OU have big wins over ranked opponents and both stumbled down the stretch. Heck, they even posted similar numbers in most major statistical categories on both ends of the floor. The Tigers opened the season with six straight victories, including an 81-78 decision over Illinois, which received a No. 1 seed in the Tournament. They also have impressive wins over ranked foes Oregon, Tennessee and Alabama. However, they are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. The Sooners also have a number of quality wins on their resume including three straight decisions over top-10 teams Kansas, Texas and Alabama in late January. They are just 1-5 in their last six games, though, with a narrow 6-point victory over 2-22 Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney their only success in that span. Overall the Sooners are 15-10 SU and 12-13 ATS.

Missouri Tigers

One team will end a disappointing run and the Tigers have their roster intact, which bodes well for their chances. They will need to pick things up on the offensive end to keep up with the Sooners. Following their upset of Alabama early last month, the Tigers went into hibernation. They lost three in a row after that victory and closed the regular season going 2-5 with wins over a bad South Carolina outfit and a middling Florida squad. They needed late free throws to beat Georgia in the SEC tournament before falling to Arkansas. With their play right now the Tigers don’t inspire a lot of confidence.

Missouri relies on upperclassmen and their difficult schedule will help in the Tournament setup. Three players average more than 12 points per game led by senior guard Dru Smith, the team leader who can do it all on the floor. He leads the team averaging 14.1 points while dishing out 3.9 assists and grabbing 3.5 rebounds per game. He’s also the only player on the team playing over 30 minutes a night. “It’s a whole new season. Nothing really before this matters. You’ve just got to come in with a whole new energy and understand that anything can happen from here,” he said regarding the team’s recent struggles.

Oklahoma Sooners

If the Sooners needed something to rally around to shake the doldrums of their recent funk, they may have gotten it with the news of Harmon testing positive for COVID. In the best scenario they would like to have their second-leading scorer on the court, but that’s not happening. And as of now no other players are in contact tracing so the roster won’t be further impacted. Harmon’s absence will definitely leave a void. He started 23 games averaging 12.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Alondes Williams is likely to get more playing time with Harmon sequestered. Williams started the first 14 games and averages 6.4 points while shooting nearly 48 percent from the field.

Whatever the Sooners do you can expect Austin Reaves to have a big role. Playing over 34 minutes a game, Reaves leads the team with 17.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He averaged 20 points in two Big 12 tournament games and is scoring 20.3 points over the last six games. He scored 19 in OU’s win over Missouri last season.

Bet Missouri vs. Oklahoma at BookMaker.eu

You would think the loss of Harmon would be a boost for Missouri. It is as long as the Tigers take advantage of his absence. But I like OU’s depth and despite their recent struggles they have some nice wins to their credit. While it’s tough to predict a winner with this game likely messing with a lot of brackets, I have to lean toward the Sooners, who have better numbers shooting and rebounding the basketball.

NCAA Tournament Prediction: Oklahoma 73, Missouri 70

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com