NBA Finals Betting – Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Game 3

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Phoenix Suns took care of business winning the first two games of the NBA Finals on their home floor. The Milwaukee Bucks need to do the same in order to stay in the series. Game 3 takes place on Sunday with the Bucks facing a near must-win situation since no team has ever won a series after losing the first three games. The Bucks should be energized by the hometown fans, but they need to get Giannis Antetokounmpo some help. Giannis was unstoppable at times scoring 42 points on Thursday, but his mates struggled in a second straight double-digit setback.

Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks
Date and Time: Sunday, July 11, 2021, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Opening NBA Odds: Milwaukee -3.5, O/U 222.5
Suns at Bucks TV Coverage: ABC

Odds Analysis

After catching points in the first two games the Bucks are a home favorite for Game 3 of the NBA Finals hitting the board at -3.5. They haven’t played at home since Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals beating Atlanta 123-112 covering the 4.5-point line in a game Antetokounmpo missed. The Bucks have been able to hold serve at home going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in the playoffs and they’ll need another victory to keep their hopes of a championship alive. For Phoenix it’s just more of the same. The Suns have been good at home all season and they’ve been great on the road. They owned the best away mark in the league during the regular season at 24-12 and that’s continued in the postseason. Just like Milwaukee the Suns clinched their first three series victories on the road and are 6-2 SU and ATS this postseason.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are as close to an NBA title as they’ve ever been. In their two previous championship series appearances they dropped the first two games and never won more than twice in any series. They’ve cruised through this playoff season so far going 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS. They trailed in a series just once after losing Games 2 and 3 to the Lakers in the first round. After that they rattled off nine consecutive victories. Both teams have shortened their bench in this series with Cam Johnson the only reserve to play more than 10 minutes on Thursday. And the Suns’ depth could be further impacted with Torrey Craig leaving the game with an injury. They already lost Dario Saric to knee injury sustained in Game 1.

The injuries might not matter, though, the way the Suns starters have played. The backcourt of Booker and Paul was phenomenal once again countering Milwaukee runs with big baskets to maintain a second half lead in Game 2. After netting 32 points in the opener Paul went for 23 on Thursday hitting 10 of 20 shots. Booker dropped 7 of 12 three-pointers to lead the team with 31 points and the Suns hit 20 of 40 triples. And they seemingly have an answer every time a top player struggles. We saw Cam Payne step up when Paul was injured and on Thursday Mikal Bridges stepped in hitting 8 of 15 shots for 27 points. The Suns are tough to beat when they get contributions outside their top guys.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been here before so they aren’t panicking ... yet. You might recall they dropped the first two games on the road in the Brooklyn series with the second a humbling 39-point setback. They came back in Game 3 of that series to win a slugfest, 86-83. It might take that kind of game for the Bucks to get back in this series. Other than struggling at the free throw line they didn’t play poorly in the first two games yet they lost both by double digits. And while the Suns have received production from just about everybody, the same can’t be said of the Bucks. Antetokounmpo was a one-man wrecking crew on Thursday scoring 42 points but no other player had more than 17.

If it seems like I said this several times before it’s because I have; the Bucks need more from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. I guess you can credit the Phoenix defense to some degree, but at least one of them needs to become more of a threat offensively. Middleton shot 5 of 16 for 11 points on Thursday and Holiday was worse than he was in Game 1 going 7 of 21 with 17 points. For the series Holiday is shooting 31 percent and the Bucks struggled to score points.

Bet Suns at Bucks at

As good as the Suns have played I still like the Bucks to make this a series. And Sunday will be their last chance. “We know what the deal is. We’ve got to go back home and protect home,” Antetokounmpo said. It really is that simple and the Bucks have thrived on their home court. They will do whatever they can to slow down Booker and Paul with the game devolving into a street fight. Not literally, but you know what I mean.

NBA Score Prediction: Bucks 106, Suns 101

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- Phil Simon,

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